Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Market Update

So far so good.

Patience is what got us that nice gain yesterday and patience is what we need to show for a bit more today. I initially suspected that we'd form a "W" bottom when the intraday charts went negative right at SPX's future's VWAP, so far price has responded in the manner which we expected and thus far, although we are not really in the range of a "W" bottom low yet and haven't seen that turn from down to sideways like yesterday, initial signs of a "W" bottom are in place and it's looking probable.

 SPY 1 min with yesterday's afternoon negative divegrence and the first part of a "W" base in place, it needs to head toward the yellow trendline and put another base together in that area. Keep in mind these "W" bases or what some might call a double bottom will often have a head fake move, that would mean this second base in the area of yesterday's lows would likely run stops under yesterday's intraday lows before making a move to the upside.

That move to the upside, while we can't be sure until we see a strong divegrence develop and that can't happen until price is in the right area (lower) to be accumulated, would have a positive effect on the accumulation process in VXX, which is what this has all been about since we spot it 7 trading days ago (Friday).

The Q's are also showing initial signs of a positive divergence

As is the IWM, so ... so far so good, it's just patience right now and verifying.

I'm going to check some other assets.

Let me reiterate, there's nothing strong about this area beyond some 1 and 2 min charts, no 5 min divergences, not even 3 minute divergences so it's not something that has much heft to it, thus a lot of short positions will be left in place and only moved if essential or there's strong advantage to it as the negative divergences are in place and they are overwhelmingly strong.


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