Trade Idea: GLD (short) / DZZ long

I already have the DZZ (2x short gold) position open in the trading portfolio, it's down -6.25% which I'm fine with especially as a leveraged ETF, but I specifically left room and only opened about a half size position here just in case we got a move like this I could add to it.

I don't have all the confirmation I'd usually require to add to the position as far as intraday charts, they'll take a little time ( a couple of hours likely), but I do have strong intermediate charts that I trust and they put the probabilities solidly in the head fake camp, the real danger here is the fundamental news flow from China and Russia/Ukraine, but I suspect with these divergences this has already been discounted, thus I'm going to fill out the DZZ long (2x short GLD)  or if I didn't have a position, I'd gladly open a new one here, the risk is fairly low on a gap like this.

GDX or GDX short which I have represented by DUST (3x short gold miners) looks very similar, I'll probably add to that as well if I have the room, I'll try to get that out as a separate post.

Here are the charts...

 These are the strange gaps and fades that I mentioned Monday in the linked update above, they are in the area of a stage 3 cycle.

Here's the 10 min chart, just like Monday these intermediate to long charts are all negative, this makes me think that the long term primary trend for gold is bullish, but that it will pullback to fill any number of gaps or even to the bottom of the accumulation range before that primary up trend takes over, that's the trade I'm looking at right now with the DZZ long (2x short Gold ) position.

Note the 3 stages and a head fake move toward what may be the end of stage 3, there's a range as we usually see in stage 3 and the head fake move is almost always the last thing before a reversal seen about 80% of the time before all reversals no matter the direction or timeframe.

Here's the 15 min chart going back further to the last stage 4 decline and the same 1, 2, and 3 as above, note the negative leading divegrence in stage 3.

And the 30 min chart has the same.

The 60 min chart is still strong, but this is a different trend, a primary one and I believe still under construction which would require that pullback to fill gaps or to the bottom of the range which is what I really expect, thus there's enough profit potential to short GLD directly without leverage, I just prefer some.

 60 min chart, several negatives in the past leading to stage 1 accumulation at the low end of the range, this is still in line, but this isn't the trend I'm trying to trade, I'd go long GLD on a pullback with the intermediate charts positive, that's a trade I look forward to, but not yet.

The 5 min chart seems to show some recent accumulation that may have been behind today's move, but it's 5 min only.

The 1-3 min charts so far are NOT confirming the gap up this morning.

Here's a 2 min chart as an example of what the 1-3 min charts look like, No CONFIRMATION.

This is really early for me as I usually want to see more evidence of a head fake, but with the 10-30 min charts that negative, I think the probabilities of this being a head fake with a stage 3 clearly defined range in place are very high, probably 80+% so I'm going for it and I can always stop out as the drawdown right now is pretty insignificant on the position.