SPY Arb, USD/JPY, VIX Futures

The significant weakness in HYG 15 min charts from the previous 2-days is still there, however it seems the VIX can't be pushed much more as a market lifting lever, the 3 assets used in the SPY arbitrage to lift the market would be VXX (down) , HYG (up) and TLT (down).

Today it looks pretty clear VIX has taken about all it's going to take and as a result what I suspect is a knee jerk reaction from the uninteresting minutes largely fueled by a low volume short squeeze is not enough and with the VIX holding its ground and not seeing the same monkey hammering, HYG and TLT were used in today's ramp-a-palooza.

 SPY (price inverted in green) shows the VXX correlation is stronger than normal today, it's not being used for the typical ramp that we saw for instance, yesterday.

However, although it's not nearly in line, all HYG needs to do to trigger algos is move up, the 15 min leading negative doesn't inspire much confidence in its ability to stay up.

And TLT vs the SPY intraday is severely underperforming, between HYG up and TLT down below its correlation, you have 2/3rds of the SPY arbitrage, a short term intraday manipulation lever.

As for the correlation with USD/JPY, when the carry cross broke all kinds of support 2-days ago and even before that, I warned, they like to "Loiter" for a few days in the area of broken support which is exactly what USD/JPY has done, but underlying weakness in the $USD may not allow that much longer.

USD/JPY (green/red) vs ES (purple) today intraday , quite a correlation there!

However the 5 min USD/JPY chart is negative and I see why...

This is the 1 min $USDX chart, this is telling, but 1 min charts don't hold up in the overnight futures market very often, so I trust the 5 min charts like the USD/JPY above which has a negative divegrence.

And the USD here, negative, thus the signals in the 5 min USD/JPY pair.

In other words they are running out of post F_O_M_C "knee-jerk" (although artificial) levers as HYG is in very bad shape as we saw the previous 2 days on 15 min charts, the VIX doesn't look like its going to take it anymore or more likely it's being picked up on the cheap. I'd be interested in a position there, I just want to be absolutely certain (as I can be) on the timing.

And of course the USD/JPY doesn't look like it will be able to hang in the area much longer as its typical 2-days of loitering are just about up as the $USD is flashing.

I may have separate TLT and VXX posts if I feel there's good timing/set ups for positions now.