I wouldn't be surprised to see some downside in to the close.
I'll be following up on the TBT position just closed, but if you think about the post previous to that, SPY Arb, USD/JPY, VIX Futures you may recall that VIX is not allowing the market any more room to ramp it so the honors went over to the 2 of 3 components in the full lever, "SPY Arbitrage", HYG up and TLT down.
Considering TBT (long) is the opposite of TLT with 2x leverage, the fact I felt I needed to close TBT tells you something about TLT's probability as a ramping asset and we already know HYG has massive damage and the USD/JPY is simply loitering with damage in the $USD.
Throw on top of that, the earlier post...Definitive Change in Character and we have some changes in the market.
There are several positions I'd like to open, although tomorrow is an op-ex Friday, which typically means we don't get a whole lot of movement, so unless I can't pass the chart by for another minute, I'd rather either wait for tomorrow after 2 p.m. as the op-ex max pain pin is lifted or Monday, for options (again unless there's absolutely no time), I'd prefer Monday.
Post with charts on the way, I just wanted you to know about the market in to the close as TLT is giving out as a ramping asset.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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