Market Update

Today is really surprisingly "Blah". On Friday when I posted that I had looked at a number of charts and they all were pointing to the same trend which was, good negative divergences in a number of timeframes, almost a good short entry, but each had a couple of charts that needed to get in line with the rest of the signals to make them really choice entries and it's really more about the timing than anything right now, this chop in the market is just a portfolio killer to try to trade without being right on top of every minute of the market, not an ideal situation at all.

In any case, here's a look at some Index Futures and the averages, for the charts that I mentioned on Friday to deteriorate (these were market ETFs, Industry groups, individual stocks, etc), there would need to be distribution on those couple of charts that weren't yet in line with the rest of the charts and for distribution, you generally need some move to the upside as Wall Street almost NEVER sells in to a market moving down, they sell in to higher prices which they have to just as a function of their sizable orders crashing price against them. Much in the same way, Wall Street accumulates in to price weakness, they don't chase prices higher, the size of their positions would create such a supply/demand imbalance, by the time their sizable order was filled they would have driven price several percent higher  and against their own position.

The other environment they'll accumulate or distribute in to is a flat trading range, a market that "seems" quiet and boring, but that's often where the most underlying institutional action appears to be, that's why I said last week that, "If I'm running scans looking for 3C divergences, I don't use 3C as my scan, I look for flat price ranges, that's where the 3C action is to be found".

Hopefully these charts aren't out of date as the market intraday moves pretty quick.

This is my Custom NYSE TICK Indicator, vs the SPY, you can see where breadth intraday fell off and where it picked back up.

Es intraday itself looks fairly negative, but it's not screaming or jumping off the chart, it is a bit more interesting than some of the averages intraday.

 NQ is the same, also note the very low volume, I said earlier this was something likely to cause increased volatility as there are several countries on vacation today.

TF is "roughly" the same intraday, a little more boring than the other two.

 The SPY signals to the left and up until early this morning were clear and they worked fine, right now there's really not a signal, it will show up soon I'm sure, but it's pretty blah, this is one of the reasons a few posts ago I said I wouldn't risk my capital in this environment, it's just not a choice environment (choppy) until we have those charts mentioned on Friday lined up, then it's time to deploy capital.

SPY 2 min, the current signal could really turn in to anything at this point, it could move to confirmation, it could pivot down to a negative divergence, etc, it's kind of in transition

 The 3 min signals is a bit more positive leaning and that's essentially what we'd need to get the distribution that was lacking on almost all of the charts I looked at on at least 1 of their multiple timeframes, some 2 or 3, but a clear trend among numerous stocks and Industry groups.

QQQ 1 min also has a slight positive bias, but again could turn in to several different signals where it currently is.

 QQQ 2 min, this is why I chose SQQQ Friday as a long position, to me it looked the worst of the averages as you probably saw the follow up charts.

 QQQ 3 min

 IWM 1 min is very blaf since the early morning signals.

The same is true of the 2 min.

At 5 min there's a slightly more positive bias, but again, it seems we are kind of transitionary.

I'm going to check on Leading Indicators.