Monday, May 5, 2014

Quick Intraday Update

It looks like there's a decent reversal process (intraday ) from the move up off the a.m. gap lows. There are also intraday signals that are negative so it looks like we'll see some downside, this is not the signal I'm looking for as mentioned Friday, I think this is likely more of the chop, but that signal I'm looking for in which all of the charts are clear for a trade (as I mentioned I looked at a lot on Friday and they looked very good, but each had a chart or two that were not where I'd like them to be and when you see that many charts all showing the same thing, that's a trend so I'm looking for that trend to change, which shouldn't take much as the majority of charts are already looking good for opening new positions).

 ES / SPX E-Mini Futures intraday show the EXACT same signals on the open this morning as the averages, a small positive divegrence just after the gap down and a little more downside, now they are all showing intraday negatives like this.

NOTE How low volume is, I know we have a couple of international holidays, Japan being 1. This could lead to some very high volatility.

 The SPY 1 min , again it's showing the exact same thing that ES 1 min above is showing since the open of regular hours trade, also negative right now.

A 1 min negative divegrence by itself has about a 50/50 chance of being a consolidation or correction through time (moving sideways) or a consolidation through price, a pullback in the average.

However when 2 and 3 min charts go negative, the probabilities are dramatically skewed toward a pullback in price as this 3 min IWM chart show a leading negative intraday signal.

As I said, I don't think this is anything to get too worked up over yet, we've had a lot of chop, it's pretty nasty to trade unless you are Johnny on the spot, this is why I've largely maintained patience and not jumped the gun too early.

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