TLT / TBT

TLT is going to be heading up , it has already begun, thus the TBT trading position long will move down, however I think this is going to set up another TBT long entry.

Typically TLT is a flight to safety trade, however with the F_E_D continuing to taper and the BLS's latest data (by the way, our BLS caption contest produced some interesting submissions, not all of which I can post here, "Bureau of Laughable Statistics" was a good one) which as predicted, before it came out, would likely be exactly what the F_E_D needed to justify continuing to taper until they are out of QE3 which I think they have to do from a survival or profit standpoint as the F_E_D is a quasi-governemental/shareholder corporation which is "FOR PROFIT".

In any case, without the F_E_D buying up Treasuries like they have been and with the teaming up of Russia and China (although Russia's holdings are very small relatively speaking), it's difficult to judge just exactly what the market is reacting to with Treasuries, I suspect there's more and more discounting going on because of the trajectory the F_E_D continues to move, that is consecutive tapers. This even in the face of a Non-Farm Payrolls print that was a head line BLOW-AWAY of consensus, but as the household survey showed (loss of 74k jobs), it was all smoke and mirrors as the only way they could arrive at that beat was by adjusting the Labor Pool down as nearly a million Americans fell of extended unemployment benefits in April as Congress' budget did not refund the extended benefits.

In any case, that's my "opinion" as of now. I'll have some charts up in a few minutes hopefully if nothing in the market distracts me or needs my attention, that will essentially show how the TBT trade set up can work on a "Come to us" basis. Since the trading position in TBT was at half size, I left room to add there.


If you have the ability to day trade and Reg. T is not an issue I suspect you can make a quick busk intraday on a market pullback, but again these little choppy moves are not something  want to personally risk resources for.