Friday, June 6, 2014

Futures Update

The divergence on the 1 min Es chart that I posted earlier is quite a bit worse right now. As mentioned earlier I received several sentiment updates from members yesterday who monitor the Twitter stream and the prevailing sentiment seems to have been to fade the short squeeze yesterday, I would imagine they'd go for the cheapest rout with the most bang for the buck, weekly puts, likely expiring today (I made a fat finger trade and the first set of IWM puts opened with today's expiration when I meant to open for next Friday's, the second set are for next Friday. If I open a 3rd set, they will be at least a month out). This may be why we are seeing so little movement after 2 p.m., however if they (those who control the pin) wanted to, they could take the market higher and achieve the same effect.

Here are the charts...
 The intraday ES chart has deteriorated even more, this won't hold up over the weekend like a chart of the averages, not 1 min. futures divergences, but at 5 mins they will and that has often been a timeframe where I'll look at trades.

In any case, I didn't need to draw on the chart, the divergence leading negative is VERY clear.

This is what is important , the migration of the divergence to longer timeframes like this 5 min NQ chart, these will hold up over a weekend.

And the move out to 15 min like this TF, that's migration or the divergence getting stronger.

 VIX Futures are interesting, not only the ROC in price from down to sideways to now a slight "U" shape, but the continuing leading positive divergence that is also migrating .

 Here it is on a 5 min chart, mostly today only and ...

A sharp leading positive on a 15 min chart.


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