The Week Ahead

Looking at the 3C charts in to the close in both the averages and futures, my feeling is the head fake move above $1900 which was resistance of the 3 month range and the area we expected a head fake move which in my opinion is more than large enough to do what they are intended to do, will start being resolved to the downside next week, it looks from the 3C charts going in to the close that this will likely start early next week. I'm not sold on one lump sum move, but rather more of something like a stair step, when $1900 is broken on the downside, I think that's where we get a lump sum move.

The move above has been very hollow, mostly short squeeze, large institutional selling, large retail buying, this is called "Leaving retail holding the bag".

As my earlier post, F_E_D Correlation, indicated, I think the excess 25-30 point SPX disconnect with the F_E_D balance sheet and/od CONTEXT is reflective of the head fake move. I do think that the market will front run the F_E_D and as I indicated in mid-May, I believed we needed a failed move above SPX $1900 (head fake) before that process could start.

There are numerous assets I'm interested in, I'll see what the watchlist (as I have 300 stocks on there now) looks like over the weekend.

More to come