Wednesday, June 4, 2014

MCP Follow Up

Our Call position in MCP from yesterday Trade Idea: MCP Filling out Long Equity & New Calls Position gained +25% while the equity side we entered or filled out has seen a 8+% gain today is still looking good, you know I just like to get out of options as fast as possible on the "Vegas" premise, the longer you stay, the higher the probabilities you're going home broke".

Here's the Call position P/L, the equity long position is still open and will stay open.

 MCP +25% / $3,000

Here's what I see going on longer term and why I decided it was maybe time to take those call gains and wait for the next set up.

 This is the entry yesterday after we were looking for the $2.50 level to be broken on volume (stops/orders hit-essentially supply on the cheap, just what institutional money needs).

The positive divegrence in a 15 min chart is pretty exceptional so I'm not concerned about equity longs, but you know how quickly options can change when momentum dies down, especially with such a narrow spread.

The 30 min chart went leading positive as well at the stop run, that's a lot of underlying movement for a single day so I'm happy with our entry in MCP.

And of course the 60 min chart leading positive at the post earnings decline/range and in to what was becoming a very obvious range increasing the probabilities of a stop run as traders place stops / orders right at or just below support, it's just too juicy to pass up, especially the supply end of things. Ism't it funny how few traders think about the question, "Who took the other side of the trade?"

However, my biggest concern about this chart in the VERY near term is the "V" shaped reversal. Granted it's such a small reversal that not much of a process is needed, but I'd rather take the gains and look for the next opportunity rather than lose them.

 This is not a big deal at all, but the 2 min chart has an intraday negative, with a gain near 9% right now on the day, there's going to be some profit taking. This may be just enough to drop momentum in MCP and I want to be out of the calls before that happens.

The 3 min chart that was accumulating in to yesterday's lows is still confirming the move up and leading so I'm very happy with out entry and will be looking for the next option position opening.

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