TLT / TBT

Here's yesterday's TLT update, Treasuries / TLT Trade...

" This is that channel on a 15 min 3C chart, there is some recent weakness developing in the channel, but I'd expect to see some kind of channel buster before a significant move, this would be VERY tradable and with a channel that defined, a Channel Buster looks to be the highest probability."

And not long after that 12:37 p.m. post yesterday,

 The defined Channel TLT has been in, because of some of the longer term 3C charts, I expected this channel to give out soon, but it will likely see a volatile Channel Buster and by the close we got the first part of a Channel Buster.

What did that do?

The same as most head fake moves, created supply.

A Channel Buster will often see an extreme move (in this case, above the upper channel trendline before failing which is something I've been looking for, a move back toward $102.

 From the intraday charts, the break below the channel is seeing a leading positive divergence.

We are looking for migration of the divergence in to longer timeframes showing it is strengthening, this is the next timeframe at 2 m also leading positive.

 The 3 min went negative at the top of the channel and is leading positive at the break below it from yesterday/today.

The same is true of the 5 min chart, this is where my minimum divergence needs to reach for a trade and there it is.

It's long charts like this 4 hour (clean trend) that show a nice base around $102 and a recent negative setting in, the reason I thought/think the channel will fail, but likely it will put in an upside channel buster to kick start downside momentum first.

As for TBT, the actual trade is short TBT, this is the 5 min chart leading negative which confirms the TLT 5 min leading positive.