Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Quick Market Update

So far there's not much of interest as far as intraday trade goes, all of the averages' 1 min chart (intraday) are in line except the IWM which has a slight negative. The "inline" status doesn't move beyond the 1 min chart so there's no kind of migration to longer charts and they remain negative as they have been all week (1 min steering divergences to keep prices stable as you'll see, while the longer charts have shown significant deterioration over the last week+).

However, as noted yesterday, the IWM does look like it wants to play a little catch-up to the other averages as it has had the worst relative performance. Since the close on Friday, the SPX has gained (to present) +0.15%, the Dow-30 +0.04%, the NDX100 +0.11%, Transports have lost -0.42% as they were covered last week showing significant deterioration there as they had been very strong (price only) recently and that had to stop before the market can reverse. The IWM is down -0.42% so nearly 4 times worse than the SPX and worse vs the other averages.

As mentioned yesterday I saw some short term positives that made me think the IWM will try to play catch up a bit, here's an example...

 IWM 3 min, this is the kind of signal on the kind of timeframe that tells me it's probable that the IWM which has a much different trend than the other averages, will try to play a little catch up. I'll keep an eye on it, but unless something changes dramatically, I wouldn't even consider this for a scalp trade.

The IWM 10 min, meant to show the underlying price action since the May 15th bear flag and subsequent short squeeze/head fake breakout, is in leading negative position, essentially the distribution through the short covering that we saw and confirmed.

 As for the Most Shorted Index (60 min) vs the SPX, there's a slight uptick since yesterday afternoon in to today, but nothing of consequence and...

HYG is still pretty broken.

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