Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Hawkish F_E_D Minutes Cause Knee Jerks with Accelerated Distribution

The F_E_D minutes were not what the market wanted to hear, you saw that on the initial reaction as they came out at 2 p.m., so why has the knee jerk bounced the market higher? Because they are scrambling to sell everything they can at higher prices , distribution has increased on the move.

Imagine you are a money manager and you just got some bad market news, but still hold long positions or haven't finished filling out short positions, maybe something like XLF which just hit an upside target of mine, you are looking to enter short above resistance as I am... Well this bounce looks like it's that scramble to clean up positions quickly and I have the proof.

 The initial market reaction to more hawkish minutes than many may have expected, then the knee jerk bounce, why? To sell in to...

 The MSI is lagging the market, it's not rallying or forcing the market higher on a squeeze.

The SPY is seeing heavier distribution intraday in to the upside knee jerk reaction.

As are the Q's, look at the relative level of price and 3C at the same spot.

XLF/Financials that just hit one of my alerts for an upside move are seeing heavier distribution, nothing approaching in line/confirmation.

VIX short term futures / VXX are seeing accumulation on the knee jerk decline (as they move opposite the market).

And Treasuries, at least TLT are seeing accumulation intraday in to the initial lows.


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