Z (long) Position Update

I know quite a few of you have Z calls expiring this or next week and I'm already getting emails about it so I thought I'd address it here. After the initial move, last Friday I posted, Z Should Continue Higher in to Next Week and more specifically, Monday's Z Position Update.

The gist of Friday's post was that the charts that caused Z (which is a longer term short candidate on a bounce) to pop up on the radar as a short term speculative long (call) position, the 5 and 15 min charts in leading positive divergences in to it's pullback through mid-August. The gist of Monday's post was the following,

"...right now it looks to be in a consolidation between support and resistance, I think support will win and resistance will lose and I suspect it will happen in the next day or so, so I wouldn't be very concerned about weekly calls (this Friday)."

Right now "Z" is still battling this morning with the 22-day moving average which is the resistance area with the 50-day right below as support, my opinion was and is that the 22-day resistance gives way and Z moves higher. However there are some charts right now that may not matter much to short term weekly call positions, that are cause for some concern moving forward.

Specifically...

 Here's this morning's move on volume so far so that's great.

This is the larger 15 min positive divegrence, as we move out to longer term charts Z is in the early stages of trouble and will likely pop up as a short trade idea in the not too distant future, but for now, the 15 min positive at the mid-August pullback has a pretty good tank of gas to lift Z.

In early trade Z is trying to confirm, I suspect it will, however...

 The 5 min chart has deteriorated since Friday, right now it looks like the divergence there was the cause of or the result of the consolidation being trapped between support and resistance so close together.

This is a closer look at the 5 min chart.

"IF" the intraday charts confirm and the 5 min chart starts to improve, then Z should be fine for a longer period which is represented by the 15 min chart, perhaps even in to next week, however if there's no improvement in the 5 min chart or it gets worse, I'd be looking to take advantage of upside momentum to close the position in to it before Z starts turning lateral or losing upside ROC.

If this were a long equity position I'd treat it different, but for most it's a weekly call position which requires different position management as theta decay and the magnitude of position percentage moves are greatly exaggerated by the leverage of weekly options.

I'll update Z as I see any changes that are useful in determining a course of management, but until then I won't be updating it unless something noteworthy happens.