Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Market Update

You already saw a lot of this earlier today, but from what I'm seeing now when I said yesterday that we may already be in the reversal process, that statement looks more and more true as today continues. I do not think this is nervousness before the minutes although there will obviously be some, this is about the right place considering the positive divergence/base's size and recent market behavior during bounces.

 IWM 1 min has failed to fill the gap, again underperformance by the IWM which is significant because the Russell 200 "should" lead any risk on move and in this one it has been the laggard.

2 min IWM with a deeper leading negative divegrence today, but more importantly look at the right turn price is taking, this looks to be the reversal process, it may be a bit too early to make that statement, but considering it may only be several days, we'll need to determine this quickly. Going through the watchlist and seeing a change in character would be pretty solid confirmation and I'm making my way through that list now. Any volatility from today's minutes release is temporary (on the upside), the support for the bounce or "gas in the tank" is now in the red light area. While the minutes could cause a knee jerk reaction, it would be one without support and therefore not really a factor in this process other than perhaps giving us a tactical advantage on some entries.

 QQQ 1 min is seeing a deeper leading negative divegrence which really got started yesterday , remember the NDX did hit our $4k target.

QQQ 2 min chart is seeing migration of the divergence like the IWM .

SPY 1 min is the 3rd average giving good confirmation and showing we are not seeing a difference in relative performance (3C), but rather a trend among the averages/market.

And again the 2 min chart is seeing migration of this increased downside negative divegrence.

I'll let you know what I find as I finish up going through the watchlist , there may be some assets that are close to entries.

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