Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Market Update, A Quick Look Around

A quick look around being this week's forecast was for a couple more days of bounce and transitioning in to a pivot with lots of evidence along the way that this is what wer'd be looking at is now starting to yield some of the larger signs I was looking for as to where the pivot would occur or the reversal process begin. We already know that Index futures have deteriorated badly, here's what the averages and a few other indications are looking like....

 SPY daily reversal areas, this looks like it could be the start of a reversal process in the SPY, it would be right about on schedule.

 The same for the QQQ

And the IWM which has failed to meet anything more than the minimum target set out last week.

The SPY 1 min intraday trend, it's actually worse than this zoomed out, but the most recent divergences are the sharpest.

The SPY 2 min trend shows what I have been saying since the first day above the base, immediate distribution in to any thing that resembles higher prices.

The SPY 5 min chart...


 However it has been this 10 min base/divegrence that I've been waiting for to turn, it's already in leading negative position so I think we can assume that the formerly in line divergence is now at a point of deterioration that is reaching saturation for this move.

 QQQ 1 min leading negative and the ROC in price is clearly turning more sideways.

 The 10 min chart is the base divergence I've been watching in this case, while it doesn't appear to be negative, I'm pretty sensitive to changes in character and the most recent decline in 3C looks like an increasing downside ROC.

 The 15 min chart which never made it to a positive divegrence is in horrible shape, this is essentially the roof or lid on the rally/bounce, ultimately it prevails.

 IWM's 10 min  divergence as already starting to lead negative, pay attention to where 3C is at 3 exact same relative levels (price).

 IWM's 15 min base positive divegrence that has been in line is showing signs of falling apart as well.

XLF which has been a barometer as I do expect a move above its range is struggling here on the 10 min chart.

However, just as XLF was the worst relative performer yesterday, the market can start it's decline/reversal process while XLF finishes to move toward my target level (relative performance), then again the IWM didn't meet any of my upside targets.

HYG's 3C trend has been shown several times, it has definitely been an influence as it has been leading price since Aug 1 when the base started, it's now starting to falter.

And the 10 min HYG chart shows this on a larger scale.

Essentially we are pretty much on schedule from Friday's "Week Ahead" forecast.

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