I went ahead and closed the DUST position, not because I think that it's unlikely that DUST can make some further gains, but because I think it's likely that the build of the gains or easy money is now over and anything from here is more or less a lot of energy \watching for a very minimal return based on early observations.
I am not advocating a long GDX/NUGT position or add to at this point, although on a primary trend basis (long term), this is one of my favorite candidates for a long term long position. However like any asset, a "V" reversal is rarely in the cards and there's a reversal process that needs to take shape which should give us further confirmation of the strength of the position, probabilities, timing and best entry/lowest risk.
The DUST P/L worked out as follows...
At a cost basis of $15.90 and a fill of $22.18, the final P/L came out to +39.5%
Looking at Gold Futures...
This is a 60 min longer term chart of gold futures (/YG) with a recent and impressive leading positive divegrence.
The 30 min chart has the same leading positive divegrence and if you look at the daily price action in both GLD and GDX, you'll see what looks like an upside down "Igloo with a Chimney" so we may be a little further in to a reversal process than initial thought, but I still want to see strong 3C confirmation as there are at least 6 or more assets we can use to confirm GDX signals.
Near term, this would be the "Chimney" portion of the chart , although upside down and the recent change in intraday character seen on GLD and GDX charts.
And intraday, gold futures are showing the same positive enthusiasm as GDX , NUGT and GLD.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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