Thursday, September 18, 2014

Market Update

*I may be posting an MCP call position very soon, I've been watching for increased volume on the day, an area of stops/short orders hit and I've seen those, a closing bullish hammer would be a nice end to the day as the inside day range of 6 days makes for a clean, clear stop level for a head fake move. I have initial positive divergences growing since the intraday volume surged, I'm pretty close to pulling the trigger, but am looking for just a bit more confirmation. I'm looking at October 3rd expiration, $1.50 calls and of course as always, I'll post any position BEFORE I enter it, just a head's up.

As for the market, it's nearly frozen in a lateral trend as if waiting for something, BABA?

 Remember this week's positive divergences in the averages from Monday to Tuesday morning reached as far as the 5 min charts.

The DIA is seeing quite a move on the 2 min chart, in actuality, strip away everything other than this week's early divegrence and the cycle and this is about where I'd expect a 1.25day divegrence on a 5 min chart to run out of gas so this isn't anything really surprising.

 The 3 min DIA is seeing migration from the 2 min chart.

 And the 5 min positive from early in the week is at a relative negative divegrence as migration from the 3 min chart bleeds in to the 5 min chart's signals.

 IWM 2 min shows the positive divergence early in the week, also note the head fake move (yellow) just before the reversal, it is proportional with the cycle/trend. While this chart is largely in line with the price action or inaction today...


 The stronger 3 min chart showing some trends from before this week as well as this week's positive and head fake stop run is showing a relative negative divegrence, not extreme, but in line with expectations of how much gas was in the tank and how far we have moved and for how long.

 The 5 min chart shows a bit of a broader trend with deep leading negative divergences at the left, the positive this week and head fake/stop run in yellow and a bit of a leading negative on the day.

 QQQ 2 min accumulation early in the week, also a quick move to tag stops in yellow and a relative negative divegrence taking on leading negative characteristics.

 This is the chart I mentioned yesterday in QQQ 3 min which had a sharp negative divegrence , it has continued today.

 And the 5 min QQQ with the positive and so far an in line trend at the green arrow as 3C follows price thus far.

 The SPY 1 min is flat on the day just like price, a strange day for price, however these flat ranges that appear boring often have a lot of underlying activity, both positive and negative. This is what I refer to as "The kids being a little too quiet in the next room", you know they are up to something.

The 2 min SPY is showing deterioration, again nothing huge, but in line with the earlier positive on the week.

The 3 min, like the Q's is where we are seeing something a little out of the ordinary.

 And the 5 min looks pretty normal from a small positive to an increasing negative, in other words, distribution in to higher prices or the failure of something esxpected yesterday that didn't pan out.


 Today's NYSE TICK/Breadth is extremely flat like price with most of the action or non action in the -500 to +600 range, very quiet with a few outliers.

The same is seen on the SPY TICK custom indicator.

A very quiet day.

What does price action have in common?

HYG, in red. Price id literally pegged to HYG.

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