Tuesday, September 23, 2014

HLF Trade Management

Our HLF position is probably one of the most interesting as everything tells you not to enter it short, Buffet, Icahn and several other very large investors in HLF, the day we entered was the biggest 1-day movie up HLF has seen, but the divergences showed distribution so although an emotionally difficult position to enter and one you might not want to be on the other side of people like Icahn, the charts did the talking. Since...

HLF is at a nearly +33% gain.

The Price pattern implied downside target is approx. $39, but those are often overshot and the market's overall tone contributes a lot to the target, but as you see, we are close to the price pattern implied target with yesterday closing around $40.

The red arrows are the last short entry we had in HLF and the 1-day Trend Channel stop is at $46.75 on a close. I suspect HLF would need to put together a bigger base along the white trendline to really get an oversold bounce off the ground, however I want to hold those gains so I'll stop out above $46.75 on a close, this should be lower tomorrow as the Trend Channel continues to lock in gains. I'd likely look for a new entry as there's a possibility this one goes to zero if Ackman is right about it being an Enron-like scam.

In any case, there's the current stop for HLF, I'll update it as we go.


No comments: