Trade Set-up/Follow Up: COF

COF looks to be one of the longer term short set-ups that is very close and I've been following this one for a  while.

 I'm trying something a little different with the white background, let me know what you prefer.

This is a daily chart showing an Ultimate Oscillator with long settings which I prefer for big picture views, it's double the normal setting at 14/28/56. You can see a positive divergence at the blue trend line to the left and two negative divergences as well as the longer term trendline in trouble, but in the very short term it should act as temporary support, which is along the lines of a XLF bounce/FAZ pullback I want to enter in Financials so it wouldn't be surprising given Financials condition and the divergences yesterday and thus far today in the market. The idea is to short this in to price strength and underlying weakness so it looks to be providing a good opportunity, it may be one of the last as COF failed to make a higher high with the broad market.

 Taking a closer look with the normal settings of 7/14/28 , again there's a recent negative divegrence in the same place as the bigger picture chart above. Also the higher volume on a Star candle is indicative of churning or strong hands handing off shares to weak hands as there was a decline following the distribution/churning event. Again, we have a small bodied possible upside reversal candle right at the longer term trend line so a bounce from here could be very useful as a tactical entry.

 The 60 min X-Over screen is just giving a new sell signal, not quite there as the middle indicator hasn't crossed below its blue moving average yet, but I suspect it will, so this is the perfect place for a bounce in to underlying weakness not only in momentum, but in underlying trade (3c) as well.

 This is the daily negative divegrence at both the highs for 2014 and the failed attempt to make a higher high with the SPX.

 The 60 min chart is a little crowded, but you can see a couple of positives, the last was the August cycle at the start of August. There are numerous smaller divergences, but the main one stretches from point "a" to the left to point "b" to the right, I just didn't want to draw an arrow through the entire chart.

This confirmas what we see on the daily chart and in financials as a group overall.

The 30 min chart is more detailed showing the highs and their divegrence , then the August base 8/1-8/8 and the distribution that is almost exactly the same as the broad market for the August cycle, a new leading negative divegrence so strategically or longer term, the probabilities are very high for a bearish outcome here, thus using any short term price strength as an entry makes a lot of sense as you let the trade come to you.

 The 10 min chart shows a divegrence from mid September that still has some gas in the tank so it could power the move, although it has already began losing its capacity.

And on the same timeframe as the overall market, we have a similar divegrence early this week. I'm  setting price alerts around $84 and slightly above for a potential entry in COF short.