Market Update 1

This is a quicker, more immediate update since the AAPL event starts in less than a hour, I wanted to get a snap shot before and after and the second post will have some more relevant information for the larger picture. Here you'll see the 3C charts with very little relevant movement as well as the near term and cycle deterioration as I mentioned last night, breadth is already failing which at least happened last time as the market was correcting 4-8% down, now breadth is failing while the market is holding in the SPX 2000 area, that's significantly more weakness, but that's exactly what these bounces are used for.

 Again HYG in red vs the SPY in green over the entire August cycle including HYG leading at the base/bottom by days, leading the stage 2 mark-up by days, leading the stage 3 lateral trend/top by days and leading stage 4 decline by days. No matter how many divergences HYG puts in, they are short term 2 min like yesterday that served to only lift the market to VWAP by the close and the SPX above 2000, otherwise, HYG continues toward a lower low and a new trend label for it's Dow trends.

 Here's HYG (red) vs the SPX, you can see it's even leading the market intraday and the trend is firmly in place now for HYG, decline.

 The MSI hasn't done anything in weeks as you can see this morning vs the SPX.

This is yesterday's breadth improvement for the afternoon rally tight to VWAP at the cash close in ES and SPX grabbing 2000, this was HYG's doing with a 2 min positive divegrence, but as I said yesterday, it's not going to change much other than an end of day ramp attempt.

You can see some improvement this morning. Here's where it's more interesting especially considering recent breadth comments in the Daily Wrap posts...

 The TICK indications are VERY weak and we have seen this intraday with -1400, 1500, 1700 and nearly -2000 readings, some of the most extreme I've seen. This manifests in a deeper TICK (red) decay, but the last time we saw this kind of action was on a move down of 4-8% (depending on the average) and as we reached a capitulation/selling climax.  Now we have worse intraday breadth/TICK trend than before and before was so bad it was the SOLE reason I called for a base and bounce (Oversold breadth), EXCEPT now we aren't in a downtrend yet and breadth is decaying this bad, this is like pier pilings crumbling while you walk on the pier above oblivious to what's happening below.

 TICK readings from yesterday at -1700, another today at -1425 and one positive about +1350

The white line is equilibrium or zero.

 SPY 1 min building a slight leading positive, this looks better now since the capture.

The 2 min shows why yesterday I said there was nothing that was going to move the market from accumulation, only HYG, otherwise just in line here.

The Q's are another example of nothing going on except the HYG divergence yesterday sending the market up in to the afternoon.

 The 5 min trend is in horrible shape and lost a lot yesterday, so far today there hasn't been that much decay although the damage is done,, it looks like the market is on hold for AAPL.

 IWM with nothing yesterday afternoon and some deterioration here,  there has been some improvement since the capture.

 The stronger looking IWM yesterday seems to have already given up what I was calling the strongest underlying trade of the major averages.

And the deterioration on the IWM is showing up on the 10 min chart as the 5 is starting to  break down, not like the Q's, however this 10 min chart is similar to the QQQ 5 min.

AAPL should give us a boost, it's just how long it can hold.