Considering the breadth and other indications like HYG, 3C signals, where we are in the cycle (late stage 3 top), etc. I would want to have a pretty filled out short presence right now.
A lot of the stocks that are trade set ups just aren't looking good, they aren't behaving well.
At this point, I'd much rather have a little wider stop and be looking at the bigger picture than the minute to minute minutia, I think we are just that close that I wouldn't want to cut it much closer.
I'll be looking at filling out a few positions, NFLX is high on my list, FAZ long , SCTY , the top 5 I mentioned earlier are all high on my list. I think we are getting to that point where the market volatility which as we have seen (as recent as last night) is picking up to the point of unpredictability and on the whole, things don't look good.
We are not at the first week of August in which a base was forming and a positive divegrence was saying we are going to run a cycle and move to stage 2. We are not at stage 2 where distribution was evident, but not screaming. I wouldn't even say we are at stage 3 top in which the only thing really left is a hea fake move. I'd say in this situation, a head fake move doesn't really matter much, if we catch it at the exact right spot that's great, but I wouldn't want to miss out on the next stage trying to top-tick the market, it is acting very badly and I'm not talking about today, I'm talking about the last several weeks of this stage 3 area.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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