This is typically a flight to safety trade, however on August 26th in
TLT / Treasuries I posted the following...
"Here's TLT, it looks like it's going to pullback"
And this was based only on these two charts on Aug. 26th, although the pullback was forward looking.
The Aug. 26th post linked above featured these two charts, a 3 min negative divegrence and a ...
1 min intraday trend and from that, we could tell a pullback was a probability, even though we had not hit any longer timeframes to speak of and the longer term 60 min , etc. were still and are still very much in line suggesting this was to be a pullback/correction, not a reversal in trend.
This is the daily chart with a stage 1 base and so far stage 2 mark-up with the most recent pullback.
This is exactly where I posted the above article on Aug. 26th, you can see that price has already surpassed the area where we first saw the divegrence which is a 3C concept that holds well, price will almost always surpass the area in which you first spot the divegrence which has some seriously negative implications for the market and a lot of stocks.
As for TLT...
Just as in the post linked above from Aug. 26th, the longer term chart is still in line confirming the uptrend which suggests that the move down in treasuries and TLT of recent has been a pullback.
A few days after the 8/26 post, we had a negative divegrence out to 10 mins which you can see actually started around the 26th in to Aug. 29th and Sept. 2nd highs.. There's a slight 3C relative positive divegrence now.
The 15 min chart shows an inline status and a negative signal around the same area as the 10 min and here too we have a current leading positive divegrence, not huge,.
but this is a lot more than we had to go on at the time of the Aug. 26th post calling for a TLT pullback.
As for the 5 min chart, it should have a sharper divegrence and it does, leading positive, you can also see the timing negative divegrence at the top on 8/29-9/2.
The very short 1-3 min intraday timeframes aren't really impressive yet, so I suspect TLT is not done putting its divegrence together which "should", if these charts continue on this course,
end the TLT pullback and the flight to safety trade (amongst a lot of other reasons listed in the post linked above) is back on.
The reason I mention this is if we take the last post and do have short term pops to the upside, but not much more, finally completing the head fake move in a reversal process that is proportional with breadth already deteriorating, then the finish of that head fake move would approximately align with the start of a TLT reversal which would make a lot of sense... As the market starts stage 4 decline, the flight to safety trade in TLT/Treasuries resumes.
There's some other evidence as well on the treasury futures charts, both 10 and 30 year. Here are the 30 year.
30 y. 30 min positive in the same area as TLT...
30 y 15 min
30 year 5 min.
This is going out on a limb and based on AAPL and some very short term signals, but it seems to fit based on what we have now so I'll be watching the Trade set-ups for their entries.
In any case, even if this is not falling together as easy as that, TLT needs to be watched as it looks like there's going to be a reversal in trend which would mean it saw a simple pullback and would be ready to continue higher in a strong uptrend.
No comments:
Post a Comment