Market Update, 2 p.m.

2 p.m. seems to be the magical hour on Friday's (op-ex) in which things change.

 The market/SPY has a clear down trend, lower highs, lower lows, this is going to be an obvious first target for any possible head fake move that might be brewing in HYG. I will note that several of our trade set-ups seem to be in a hurry to get to their head fake zones like FSLR and SCTY today, even against an ugly market, I suspect they know they are running out of time, I also suspect they know exactly when that time is, an obvious date would be the F_O_M_C, especially as the sentiment is that the F_O_M_C is going to come out more hawkish, watch those dots and talk about interest rate hikes, slack in the labor market, etc.

As for today, on of the things we are looking at is support, an inability thus far to make a lower low. Watch for volume to expand in this area, it's a sure fire flag that there's going to be an upside reversal intraday.

 The 60 min 3C chart has been right on. It showed the accumulation at the August base, confirmation at stage 2 and distribution through stage 3, stage 4 is coming. HYG is the short term wild card and whether the market makes a head fake move. I'd say 80% of the time the answer would be yes, but looking back at some previous tops, there weren't any, so who really knows, when weakness sets in, you'd be surprised how quickly smart money tightens up-look at the AAPL decline in 2011.

 Intraday the SPY is showing signs of a positive divegrence.

As is the IWM

And the Q's have a more notable one.

HYG has seen some deterioration intraday, but it hasn't changed the divergence in this flat area that I have been watching the last 3 days.

Intraday breadth has been horrible, I'm sure it will show up on the updated internals/breadth charts after the close.

And TICK today, horrible, breadth has been consistently below 100, then the -1250 level and peaking at nearly -1600, this has been a trend as of late, however,  in addition to a surge intraday in volume, the TICK will give early warning for an intraday reversal so watch for a break toward the upside or channel to the upside.

Last, don't forget the trade set-ups, any price strength bringing them in to our target zones with confirmation of a false move is an excellent entry, if not a bit hard emotionally, but that's what we get paid for.