Friday, September 12, 2014

Quick MCP Update

I wasn't "thrilled" about MCP's early performance today, you might even think, "At 2% down, what's there to be happy about?"

I waited on an MCP update for the same reasons most people look at the close as the most important part of the trading day, there are a lot of games intraday that kick traders out of positions.

As an aside, the last time I used a placed stop (placed with my broker) was about 8 years ago as I was going on a 4-day cruise, the long position was looking good and I put in an "Emergency Stop" much, much lower than a reasonable stop, just in case the world stopped spinning. Not only can Wall St. see every order you place despite what your broker says, most decent traders can see them as well.

I was stopped out of my long position while I was on my cruise. Interestingly my stop was the low of the day on about a 6% move down that day, after it was hit, the stock went on to close up 5% on the day and kept going in the days and weeks after that. So I never place an order until I place an order and when I go on vacation (which ha been a good 4 years for anything beyond a long weekend), I'll likely close out all positions and enjoy my vacation.

In any case, the day is not done, but I didn't want to overreact to something I knew was likely an intraday game.

 The only thing I'm concerned about today with MCP is the close, I'd like to see today's candlestick's real body stay within Tuesdays, a sort of Rising 3 Methods pattern. A break above Tuesday's body high is a bonus.

As for the longer tail on today's daily candle, note the support area and the volume spike just as price moves below that support area, stops rang...

I do like the U.O signal here as well.

More importantly...
 On an intraday basis, look what happened to the stops hit at support.

As far as thinking bigger, this 30 min chart of MCP is what's keeping me in the trade (as well as some others, but in this area, this is the most relevant).

And if we zoom in to the same 30 min chart and look at the last 3 days and today's move under support, we get an interesting picture.

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