Friday, September 12, 2014

Trade Idea (longer term) Transports

It's no secret I really like transports as a short and a diversifying asset as I typically only run about a half dozen positions at a time and want to get as much diversification among sectors as I can. The good thing about transports is that they'll typically confirm equities so any downside in my core shorts that are linked to an average like SRTY (3x times short the Russell 2000) are confirmed by a move lower in transports, but allows for rotation.

Transports look good in this area, in fact our current layered entry in to IYT (transports) is only down 1.36% ...


which is impressive as far as entries go considering the daily chart...
Which is close to all time highs. The price pattern looks as if it may be a H&S top with this being the head, but all H&S tops start off as "Broadening Tops" which could also be possible. In any case, both of our entries/blended, have given us a great average entry.

As to the charts which are what really matter here...
 Long term 4 hour, consistent with the increased upside ROC of price right before a change in trend (see trendlines), in this case most often a topping pattern...

 The 60 min chart with entries as the first divegrence took place very quickly on our first entry and the subsequent move has a much lower flow of funds/support or in other words, heavier distribution with less support at the same relative price area.

 As for this particular move as transports have been strong the last couple of days, this chart is comforting although with the longer charts looking the way they do, this is something you just expect to see.

On a more timely basis, the 5 min chart showing the most recent move since our last entry to be totally hollow as the other intermediate charts show, with an especially strong leading negative divegrence today.

 The 3 min trend just provides more confirmation.

And the intraday 1 min looks like this is an excellent place to enter or add to. I kind of doubt you get anything much better, at least not another move (maybe some fumbling in this one).

THIS IS WHAT 3C IS FOR, THESE ARE THE KINDS OF DIVERGENCES AND CONFIRMATION AMONG MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES AND ASSETS I(IYT) THAT I DON'T IGNORE.

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