UNG / UGAZ

I have to post this UNG (UGAZ 3x long UNG) because the for 1 the opportunity here is looking better and better and for 2, the string of updates are very telling, looking at the signals we had at the time as well as the signals that we didn't, but the concepts we have come to expect, UNG analysis has been pretty close to flawless, but it's all about the trade and I REALLY like UNG long or better yet, UGAZ (3x long Nat. Gas).

I already have a UGAZ position that I'd gladly add to if one more concept falls in to place.

This last update from 9/2 shows our expectations even though we didn't have specific evidence at the time and later how the evidence built in based on the concepts and the expectations followed suit, sort of like any of the trade-set-ups like FSLR earlier today.

Here's the post, UNG / UGAZ Update with links to the preceding posts as well. If you have the time to read them, I think you'll find that the concepts are what are important about them (although the UNg/UGAZ trade is the final destination), the concepts can be applied to any stock or asset in any timeframe you trade.

 The initial evidence was that this breakout move was going to back and fill some gaps, maybe more. I'd like to see a move below support to add to UGAZ long, you'll see why in a moment.

The 2 hour chart shows where we were seeing distribution and you can see clear accumulation in the current range.

 The 60 min chart shows the negative divegrence from higher levels to come back down and fill out a base which has a huge leading positive divegrence, thus any move below support is which is fairly well defined, is likely to be a head fake run on stops which would be accumulated, exactly the kind of area I'd want to enter at a lower cost basis although we're already at a low cost basis on the current UGAZ position, only down 1.5% on a 3x leveraged ETF a we sit near the bottom of support.

 The shorter term charts show the head fake move in detail, like this 3 min with distribution at the false breakout, but the distribution is very light as it is only showing up on intraday 3 min charts at the longest, also suggestive of someone accumulating a larger position. The false breakout forces longs who bought the confirmation to close out their position as price drops below their stops, creating more supply while smart money just waits for price to re-enter the accumulation zone at lower prices.

In actuality, this could end up looking like a Crazy Ivan shakeout of the rectangle base which is what I would want to buy as an add-to position.

 As I said before, distribution wasn't heavy, you can see the evidence, however again only on a 2 min chart and since the decline accumulation has been seen in to lower prices.

I have no problem with a long UNG or UGAZ in the area , but I would like yo leave a little room as a head fake/stop run below well defined support is pretty likely and we have such strong positive divergences where it really counts. Again, you may want to set some price alerts for a move below $20.59 intraday.