Thursday, October 2, 2014

GDX Follow Up

This is a follow up to yesterday's Trade Idea (Swing+) GLD / UGLD & GDX Update which had the punchline of a half size GLD entry, actually UGLD (3x long Gold), hopefully looking forward being able to fill out the other half with NUGT (3x long Gold Miners) and treat the two as 1 position because they are so closely correlated.

Today's update is specifically GDX (Gold Miners) as they are "getting there", although I'm not convinced on the timing as of yet, the truth is if I didn't already have some exposure via UGLD I'd consider opening NUGT at a half size position with the same caveats as far as adding to them. I really don't think this is a question of whether GDX and GLD bounce,  I think they do bounce. It's a question of when is the best timing for a full size entry and how big is the final base? Will it support a breakout from the over year long GDX base or is it just a corrective bounce?

 GDX is giving us clear evidence that the lows in price are being accumulated and today saw sharp accumulation with a stunning leading positive divegrence, nearly a rocket.

 While you may think, "Yeah, but that's just a 1 min chart" and I'd be inclined to agree, at this time of day for a 3 min chart to do nearly the same in such a short period tells me there's some aggressive underlying trade that is not at all obvious by looking at price alone or using price based indicators.

The best case for a GDX/NUGT long is this 10 min chart's leading positive divegrence. Considering I already have a 50% UGLD position and I'm trying to be patient and figure out the best timing, I must say it is very difficult to maintain calm and pateince and not just jump in to GDX/NUGT long right here and now.

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