Thursday, October 2, 2014

Quick Index Futures

I often say that I won't consider a long position unless the 5 min Index futures have a positive divegrence, everything happened so quickly yesterday afternoon that I hadn't even checked the Index Future 3C charts at the time. Here's what they look like...

The 5 min charts are there... However more so in /NQ (NASDAQ 100 Futures), which is where the change late yesterday was made, QQQ and IWM.
 NQ 5 min divergence.

I was surprised to see divergences already out to the 15 min chart in Index futures...
 ES 15 min with yesterday's late day divegrence showing up as leading.

What I find interesting, although I don't know the exact cut-off time for end of quarter reporting, I would assume it's 4 p.m. EDT on the last day of the quarter. So what I find interesting is the positive divegrence forming and taking shape just after the close on Tuesday with Tuesday being the end of the quarter. This isn't a huge divergence (to the left), but interesting that it seems to pick up right after the close.

The divergence is always at the end of the arrow, the beginning of the arrow to the left is the point of "Relative measurement".

 In NASDAQ Futures on a 15 min chart you can see the same thing. At the time of this divergence, it would have looked so small I don't think I'd even have felt it worthy of pointing out, however adding yesterday's late afternoon divergence, it becomes a bit more interesting although I don't think it has any real effect or meaning for us, it's just an interesting observation about quarter end /window dressing activities.

 And TF/Russell 2000 15 min.

Interestingly there's a small 30 min positive in ES as well, which I probably would not have pointed out if not for the 15 min divergences.

In any case, the 5 min minimum that I look for is there and then some.

No comments: