Thursday, October 2, 2014

Looking in the same place as yesterday

Since the leveraged ETFs tend to react faster with deeper signals, I looked in the same place I was watching yesterday which caused me to make some short term portfolio changes. I'm not worried about TQQQ or URTY long risk, the two closed inverse ETFs, especially SRTY, worked very well for me and my equity curve,  if anything I'm more concerned about giving up gains in the two that I closed yesterday (SQQQ/SRTY).

Here's what I found, again, interesting, especially in the Inverse ETF's.

 SRTY 1 min which was showing some strong distribution late yesterday has continued today, since I have suspected the shorts in SRTY (long) are strong hands, it is likely they are institutional traders, thus large positions. Let me be clear though, this isn't the kind of distribution that suggests a primary trend change or a change in thinking, it looks like a short term move some are preparing for.

The additional distribution today is in the red block.

 The same is seen on SRTY 2 min, while the 2 min charts in the averages weren't effected, here they are in the 3x short IWM ETF (SRTY).

And the strongest divergence at 5 min is still ugly .

 As for SQQQ, the 3x short QQQ ETF, its 1 min chart is negative as well through today.

It's 3 min chart is as well.

And the 5 min chart. I definitely like the URTY long more at this point than the TQQQ for a bounce.

As for TQQQ, it's 1 min is adding today in to the weakness with a leading positive divergence continues from yesterday.

The 5 min chart is doing the same so it does look like there's some heavier accumulation/distribution activity than what the averages themselves showed us.

URTY, the 3x long IWM is showing a 1 min chart that looks exactly like the IWM, in line.

While the larger underlying flow at 3 mins is still leading positive.

I suspect we are building a bigger base as I mentioned regarding this trade. I had said if we don't see more base building today and rather we see a move to the upside, I'd likely get out of the TQQQ and URTY long before the weekend because there isn't a base strong enough there for me to feel it's reliable enough to go through the weekend.

However if the base building were to continue in to today and even tomorrow, I'd likely hold the positions so long as nothing jumps out unexpectedly and look for a bounce in to early next week, I may add to the position if this looks to be the case.

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