Good Morning!
Once again, like Wed/Thursday night/morning (second consecutive overnight session) futures touched new highs and then faded those highs lower, pretty much on the back of USD/JPY. The fade of overnight highs seemed to come after Japanese officials said that strong directional moves in the Yen either direction are "Undesirable". 10 year Japanese bonds fall/yields increased.
Shanghai and the Hang Seng closed in the red while the Nikkei made up for some of yesterday's losses with a +.52% gain.
European shares have give back a bit after earlier gains, as of now the FTSE is green with the DAX and CAC-40 in the red.
German Industrial Production report came in at a miss as the economic picture there (Euro-area) deteriorates in to what is likely already an all out triple dip recession. German 10 year bonds fall/yields increase.
The $USDX as expected last night pulled back lifting crude, silver, gold and other $USD denominated commodities. Also as expected after the close, the Euro gained against the $USD
The all important NFP/Employment Report came in at a miss at 214k jobs added vs consensus of 235k, but the actual is not far off the 12-month average of 222k, while quite a bit off the last month's revised 256k print. The market had expected an even better print than consensus, the whisper number was much higher due to the ISM Services employment index. The official unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%.
The market reaction, not as knee-jerky as I would have expected at first , although definitely a pump and dump as it seems the headline unemployment rate was seen first and details second with ES, bonds, silver and gold all pushing higher, since it has been a mess. Silver futures were even briefly halted.
ES has lost ground, about 7 points from the knee jerk reaction high as they leak lower with 30 year treasury yields on stronger bonds right now.
It's still a mess, but the trend as of right now, as small as it is, looks lower in to the open for Index futures.
Oh... and Kiev was once again claimed a Russian incursion of 32 tanks and about a dozen artillery pieces. While the Rubble may react, it seems the market has totally ignored the call of foul.
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Risk Management
Get the Most Out of Your Experience
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 2
- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
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- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
- * A Currency Crisis
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My Charting Software
3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
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Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...7 years ago
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