URRE +25%

URRE is similar to UNG in that we have been following it for quite some time as a potential secular bull market stock, I actually like UNG better, but since we have been following it so long, I can't ignore the +25-35.6% gain it has in place today.

The charts...

 Trend lines can be drawn a few different ways, as a rectangle with poor performance to the right side which makes sense with what happened next or as a descending triangle (bearish consolidation/continuation pattern), however a triangle this big should never be mistaken for a consolidation / continuation pattern which may last a month or so, but not this long, although most technical traders won't differentiate and will take this as a bearish triangle and thus short a break below its support trendline making for a slick bear trap.

The yellow arrow is the concept that I have covered 4 or 5 times this week in UNG, XLF and several others, the bear trap for upside momentum.

 Here's a closer look on a daily chart.
For new members, if you have not yet read the posts, "Understanding the Head Fake Move", I'd call them essential reading for understanding many of our concepts and how and why the market acts as it does. These posts are ALWAYS linked at the top right corner of the member's site, if you need links to them email me.

 On a daily chart candlestick analysis is helpful with a bullish Harami candlestick pair at the yellow box or what we call an "Inside Day" in the west. Remember,  candlestick reversals just tell us the trend is changing, they have no targets other than to say that if you look at a 5-day chart's signal, you should expect at least 1 bar of reversal which would be 5 days as it's a weekly chart.

The move today on volume "Appears" to have been helped by $USD weakness, although they reported today, added properties for new drilling in 2015 and appear to have benefitted from Japan re-opening nuclear power plants all in the same day.

 The longterm secular move is what has been of interest to me with URRE, not as a trading/sewing stock, thus I'd consider it as a long term investment and my risk management would reflect that and the fact it's likely in a large multi-year base (volatility in stage 1 can be extreme).

Like UNG a negative divergence sent this significantly lower before a change in character of price.

The 2009/20010 leading positive divegrence led to a move of over 800%. The leading positive divegrence since has been a multi-year one, much like homebuilders at least 2-3 years before homebuilders led the next bull market with 2500% gains.

As you know, there appears to have been a bear trap head fake move below support, this chart shows a failed upside move followed by accumulation for a second larger failed upside move. If these moves were legitimate, which I suspect they were, then they are no different than UNG's attempt to breakout of the range,  when it couldn't be done under the stock's own power plan "B" came in to being, the bear trap/momentum building short squeeze.

You se the last rally /breakout attempt fail before they seem to give up and let it fall, perhaps with a head fake move in mind ahead of time, you'd be surprised how far in advance Wall St. plans and works assets. From what I can prove from both charts and actual research documentation (internal), it's on a 6-12 month scale in average, often 1-2 years for larger primary trends.

 This 30 min chart shows what happened, a more detailed version of the chart above, for that reason I have labeled each divergence in order of occurrence and where they effected price.

 As far as head fake concepts go, I often say we see them 80% of the time regardless of the asset or timeframe, this is another example of a head fake move just before a reversal as they act as excellent timing indications.  

PRICE IS RARELY WHAT IT SEEMS AND WHILE PRICE PAYS, PRICE ALSO IS DECEPTIVE AND TAKES AWAY.

The one disturbing thing is the lack of short term confirmation which may be understandable as those who have losses seek to take gains quickly, but I'd like to see a pullback and how URRE handles it. For this reason I'd either be taking partial profits with a stop or one or the other until we have more solid information beyond a knee jerk move on all today's news.

The 60 min X-Over Screen has been pushed to a long signal, all 3 indicators are confirming and the pullback targets are the 10/22 price moving average on the chart.

The daily X-Over has nearly triggered a long signal as well, I suspect it will.

I would not chase, I'm not even sure I'd hold without a stop.

As for the daily Trend Channel, the stop would be just above $1.40, I would never place a stop at a whole number or even number, not even $1.40.

The more appropriate stop on a 60 min Trend Channel is at the $1.70 area and will continue to move higher, email me for the latest, but remember these are on a closing basis.