There's no way I can post every chart that makes this argument, but I believe today's option expiration, as the max-pain pin fades, if the pivot to the downside move we have expected to follow this "Face ripping rally".
Since October 15th when I said I not only thought we'd see an exceptionally strong move and challenged members to bookmark the post, saying (paraphrased) "Even with the knowledge of what's to come and my 99% belief that after this strong move we will be making a new lower low, it will be so strong you'll be afraid to short the strength in price and underlying weakness which is a market gift" This is no short-coming of any member or trader, the move is designed to be convincing and not only to the bullish dupes, it's meant to squeeze every last short out as the boat was leaning too far to one side in mid-October with everyone bearish, the Fear and Greed Index pegging a record setting consecutive day reading of zero, the most bearish with current sentiment as discussed last night in saying,
"the most recent investor-sentiment survey from The American Association of Individual Investors indicatesthat optimism is at its highest level since Dec. 26, 2013, while pessimism fell to a nine-year low."
As to what you have seen, the strongest Leading Indicator readings seen this year, that includes the Leading Indications that were just before this "Face Ripping Rally" as we called it on October 15th at the lows. I have posted these so many times they are probably seared into your memory.
Longer term breadth charts are as bad or worse than the 2007 top, posted this week in the Now and Then post.
Absolutely no repair to breadth despite the strongest rally of the year.
The very simple concept that I posted last night with a random example of the concept (HLF) from months ago, the same concept we have been following for years, which tells us the rally was a means to an end, not an end in itself, that concept has to do with the 3 places I'll short a top....
It doesn't matter if this concept is on a 1-day chart of a major average or a 1 min chart of a small cap, it's the same , the only thing that is different is emotional sentiment which is not what we want to use to make decisions.
The TLT/30 Year Treasury Futures have been key this week as they are already negative on a larger basis , the intensity of the move, but have fallen off badly intraday, the timing.
Our Currency analysis with $USD expected to weaken, Yen expected to strengthen and $Euro expected to strengthen which we have already seen overnight and today, this looks to continue so USD/JPY lower, EUR/USD higher.
The Index futures charts are negative in nearly EVERY key timeframe and badly so, including TF, ES and NQ.
Treasury futures are in leading positive divegrence meaning yields move lower as Treasuries have huge short presence, they are set for a short squeeze that leads stocks lower.
The VIX, as mentioned several times over the last week+ is leading positive at 60 min, someone with deep pockets expects lower prices.
I can go on and on, but I fully expect volatility to increase and for us to see a sharp move lower next week, I believe we'll end up making new lower lows (maybe not all next week, but during this leg).
Remember markets fall between 2.5 and 4x faster than they rise.
Best of luck!
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