HYG Update

I'm trying to gather as much data as I can for market timing purposes, I honestly can't say that I would bet against the probability of a sharp drop, stronger than this rally. I personally will NOT try to trade around even a 1- day upside move that I feel as certain about as I did the GLD drop yesterday morning. Personally, I'm all in, if I had any more dry powder, I'd be using it now regardless of timing as the macro trends are overwhelming. It's sort of like losing that AAPL -45% decline I had been making a painful case for as everyone loved AAPL at the time as it hit new highs, simply because I decided to chase a small bounce rather than just stay in the short position, a painful lesson to this day.

However I want to provide the best information I can for you as I know we have all kinds of traders, investors, managers.

I was concerned with some HYG charts, however they may already be resolving themselves. 

I wanted to do a macro update with as much information as possible, but things are NOW moving exceptionally fast so charts I captured 5 minutes ago may look different and I'll try to give you the most updated information I can, thus I have to break up these updates.

*The caveat is, while short term charts are moving quickly as I perceive a near term exponential increase in volatility, the MACRO charts are not changing, they are the highest probability, they are far beyond historical norms in uncharted waters, thus at this amount of destruction in them, they could literally break any minute- again because they are well past any historical precedent which also means they are likely to produce a move beyond historical precedents.

HYG was causing some concern, even though HYG didn't close green the last 6 days, intraday it has supported the market.

 HYG intraday again today below yesterday's close and red here at the capture, but moving in support of the SPX (green). It is currently at dead flat 0% which is an improvement from this capture which shows yesterday's close as a red hash mark.

The charts of concern...

 This 10 min chart in to a rounding bottom, not a big base, not a base that can support much of a move, but a base all the same and positive at that.

Since my concerns, the 10 min chart has been moving leading negative intraday which is a large move for a 10 min chart intraday,  thus the issue may be resolving a;ready and no longer a cause for concern.

Intraday note the positive divegrence as support for the gap fade trade and through the day the intraday chart has been declining, it hasn't migrated to a 2 min chart, but the 10 min chart speaks volumes.

I'll be updating as much as I can as fast as I can and in a comprehensible and useful way, but likely independent updates, at least through normal market hours.