Oil Trend Changing...

This is one longer term trade that may very well be worthwhile. Personally I think there's a pretty good chance of a smaller swing trade to the upside, but I believe it is part of a larger range forming or stage 1 base. I personally wouldn't quite be interested in a long unless we had a head fake move below very recent support, however the trend is clearly changing, I can't give you the fundamental reason why it should change, especially in light of Global PMIs today, but something is clearly changing and with a little leverage, this may make for a very nice position trade.

 USO Weekly chart. "To make money you must see what the crowd missed"

What I see is a near textbook, classic Double Top, the measured price pattern implied target is nearby, roughly $27. The large volume recently is a concept we see over and over again on just about any timeframe chart. Look at our exit from DGLD yesterday, it was at the exact bottom and the reason why was increasing volume. This is a clear change in character and changes in character lead to changes in trends.

Even the weekly candlestick pattern is a bullish reversal pair called a Harami or "Inside Day" with a Doji star.

The only thing missing to make this candlestick reversal pattern super high probability is a rise in volume on the 2 bars, however,  I believe that reflects the fact that the base area is not complete or "in the works".

 

 Using a large 2-day Trend Channel that holds the entire downtrend, the downtrend stops out at $30, it may be even lower than that in a few more days as the Trend Channel continues to lock in downtrend gains.

 Look at the down trend line and the recent support clashing together, a few more days and the down trend could be broken here as well.

This is the 2 hour 3C chart clearly showing a top of a H&S type nature, although the neckline could be drawn several ways, the distribution through it is unmistakeable as is the down trend confirmation and recent positive change in character of 3C.

 The exact same is seen on a 30 min chart.

S3= a stage 3 top, S4 = stage 4 decline and the next stage in the cycle is stage 1 base, which it appears is taking hold.

 The 10 min chart has a rounding bottom and a positive divegrence, this is the reason I said I thought there's a good chance of an upside swing trade, but I think it has a roof as it in effect, carves out a larger base range.

 The 3 min chart shows the same so it does look probable that a swing move up starts soon, to even consider this I'd want a head fake move below support for a better price, but mostly to reduce risk. This really isn't the position I'm envisioning though, it's a much larger one as the base looks more complete.

The 2 min USO chart is negative and suggests a pullback and possible head fake is a probability, thus I did not put this out as a trade idea (even as a swing trade) yet.

There's also confirmation in Crude (Brent) futures)..

 The daily Crude futures chart shows 3C negative at the very highs of the last trend, the positive divegrence isn't big enough to show up here yet, but remember the concept of "Migration", so the next longest timeframe for futures I use is the 4 hour chart.

This not only shows perfect 3C confirmation of the down trend, but a positive divegrence which is likely to migrate to the 1-day chart above with a little more base work.

If you are interested in a possible swing trade, let me know. I'll be setting price alerts for a head fake move below local support (60 min chart).