IWM Charts

I'm trying to complie data as fast as possible, but as always, intraday charts are subject to fast moves and they are often important moves.

One cause of concern I have is HYG charts, they look stronger (3c) than I'd expect, yet at the same time they are seeing distribution through early timeframes suggesting the possibility of HYG being there, intraday to support the market this week including the head fake move, yet still not putting HY credit traders in danger as HYG has closed lower the last 6 days, yet it's something I always want to keep an eye on.

None of this changes any macro or highest probability expectations, this is shorter term in nature.

In any case, these are the IWM charts that I mentioned along with some others.

 Ear;y this morning I mentioned some positive divergences and the possibility of fading the gap as an intraday trade, you can see the positive divegrence in IWM which is more a function of the gap down, it's probably easier to explain in market maker/specialists terms, as of the close last yesterday they had inventory near the closing levels, as of this morning that inventory was at a large loss, thus the gap fill to unload yesterday's inventory near closing levels. This likely explains the VIX smash and dash early today, some of the TLT and certainly HYG action.

This leading 1 min chart is quite deep and fast developing.

 In this 2 min chart's IWM trend which went negative at the IWM's exact high and has stayed PERFECTLY in line with a downtrend since, has seen negative divergences at the head fake (suspected) move of Tuesday and again today there's no support as 3C continues toward a lower low, keeping the trend/price confirmation neatly intact.

However with op-ex (monthly) tomorrow (I'd like to see where some of the calculators are calling max pain, I'd suspect that pin would be lower as bullish sentiment would most likely see more call buying by retail)  and increased volatility since the Nikkei's Sunday night plunge and just after its dead cat bounce (today's open), there's the rising probability of that VIX Bollinger Band Squeeze and buy signal sending volatility soaring higher, of course the market trades in the opposite direction of VIX.

 The 3 min IWM chart also seems to be taking any opportunity at higher prices to distribute (which includes selling short as it is a sale across the tape).

And this is the institutional timeframe of 5 min, the fastest timeframe in which we typically see larger institutional transactions intraday, clearly negative as well.

This is the intraday TICK just as the IWM was starting to see some downside with TICK falling out of the channel and hitting a -1100 low, that's a serious batch of selling quickly in the afternoon when institutional traders are most active.

I see there's a bit of upside volatility since this capture right now around +750.

 Interestingly and I've been watching this closely, you may recall breadth indicators for the most part have not moved at all in about 12 days, over 2 trading weeks, thus I wouldn't expect to see a lot of movement on the custom TICK trend indicator, however, today we see the early positive trend movement and later negative trend movement throughout the day.

Remember with multiple timeframe analysis the shorter charts are going to reflect short term activity while the longer charts are reflecting highest probabilities and larger moves.

Thus the recent rash of deep negative TICK readings just before and in to the (suspected) head fake area and after, are the first significant reading showing a strong change in breadth for the entire trend.