We saw one of the worst global data days in a long time from Asia to Europe and the US, PMIs were horrible, yet bad news is still good news? It didn't seem like the minutes yesterday were a confirmation of the F_E_D Put, in fact it seemed distinctly like the F_E_D was telling the market that those days are over, which goes back to me post from earlier about the F_E_D playing both sides as long as retail is on the wrong side and smart money is set up in advance, but don't take my word for it, the chart with Bullard's hawkish, dovish and now hawkish statements that have coincided with pivot highs lows and now are quite clear in this post, The Plunge Protection and Market Correction Team and if there was any doubt the F_E_D is still in "Stealth bank bailout mode", all of the information is right here, Tin Foil Hats No More, Follow the Money as Goldman and the NY F_E_D Are Exposed
For the second time this week we've had the VERY strange VIX "Fat Finger" trade, 3x in a single day both times and at the close both times, here's today's... what in the heck?
I found something else just about as exciting as the VIX buy signal and ever shrinking Bollinger bands...
What did I find? Well take a look at the chart again as volatility dies down after the European close and the market flattens out...
According to at least one site, the SPY's max pain for op-ex is $199.00, although I don't create or follow these calculators myself so I can't go to bat for them, I can say volatility is rising, I know that might sound strange after the SPX closes up only +.20% and the Dow +.19%, but intraday trade and small caps are but one sign of many. And some of the 3C closes today weren't exactly confidence inspiring...
With the DIA looking very similar...
The recent market proxy, Financials also not looking great today...
Trade today after the European close was notably flat, not really worth hanging around a fade/day trade.
Unlike yesterday, the Russell/Small caps led, but the R2K and transports are STILL red on the week.
Treasury yields dropped after the European close likely had a lot to do with flat afternoon trade...
but why were Treasuries heading higher/yields lower?
And these might just be good confirmation...
Although HYG's ending ramp didn't help the SPX or NDX, it did help yesterday's under performer, small caps/R2K at the close as HYG just closed green on the day.
The USD/JPY did nothing for the market today, but the AUD/JPY stepped in for support, but I suspect that ends tonight as the AUD looks like this...
And the USD/JPY, well it looks like it's troubles are not over yet...
It doesn't appear that the USD/JPY is going to help the Nikkei 225...
After all...
HY Credit diverged from stocks after the European close, the trend is off the chart bad, we've never had such a large divergence in HY Credit vs the SPX.
As for market breadth, While the Dow didn't have one, the SPX, NDX and Russell 2000 had Dominant Price/Volume Relationships, this time Close Up and Volume Down, the most bearish of the 4 relationships with 45 NDX stocks, 918 R2K and 179 SPX.
Of the 9 S&P sectors, 5 of 9 closed green with Energy leading at +1.755 and Consumer Staples lagging at -.43%. Of the 238 Morningstar sectors, a fairly hefty 182 of 238 closed green, approaching the Overbought levels.
There was nothing especially interesting about Breadth Indicators that wasn't posted last night except many are now on their 3rd trading week of absolutely no movement despite the market making a new SPX high (+0.20%).
However the one interesting thing as I posted about a week ago, I'm getting pretty good at seeing changes in character well before they register, I posted one in the SKEW index or the Black Swan (Market Crash) Index, tonight it has hit elevated levels on a strong move upward as deep out of the money puts are now being bought, I wonder why?
No comments:
Post a Comment