Market Averages Update

If the FADE TRADE and a near total retracement of today's gap wasn't bearish enough confirmation for you, I'll try to add whatever color I can, being as fair as I can.

I would rather give you all of the pieces at once so the big picture and all of the puzzle can be put together, but multiple assets are moving so fast, by the time I capture all of the charts, they have changed before I can upload them so you'll have to keep each update in mind and put the pieces of the puzzle together.

This update  will deal with intraday moves. Because of the gap, it's hard to scale 3C with price correctly, in almost every occasion it should be lower and closer to price itself, not higher as it appear, although that doesn't change any of the divergences.

In a few cases I show the longer term trend of a chart to put that divergence (intraday) in to perspective, but this is not a trend update, intraday only.

 The "A" and "B" are part of my scaling problem, but if there was any 3C confirmation on this SPY 1 min chart, 3C would be significantly higher with price, which it's not even higher than point A,  so this is an example of total non-confirmation of the move which we saw on the open, thus the support of a fade trade for members interested and THE 3C NON CONFIRMATION HAS ALREADY PROVEN ITSELF VIA THE INTRADAY TRADE AND RETRACEMENT OF THE GAP.

The specific intraday divergence as you can see is not only perfectly in line with the price move lower, but  in leading negative placement, a new leading negative low for this chart and actually beyond.

The white is yesterday's opening gap down and positive divegrence mentioned in the early morning for a FADE gap down long trade. This is not a divergence preparing for today's it's a matter of the gap down and again scaling as well as market makers/specialists caught with inventory at the previous day's close they need to unload by filling the gap which is EXACTLY what happened.

 SPY 3 min showing the suspected head fake move at yellow, which I still suspect is real, the leak (if indeed there was as I suspect from yesterday's HYG) was very recent and for a gap up like this, a lot more would have been accumulated. I suspect this was a fundamental surprise that was leaked only at the last minute making the intention of the head fake move days before still the factual intention of the move, the PBoC gap up was just a knee jerk and fundamental unknown at the time and surprise after the head fake move was in place.

 SPY 5 min as an institutional intraday timeframe is showing a very sharp leading negative intraday divergence showing a lot of distribution today alone.

 Even worse, smaller divergences on this 10 min chart are virtually scaled out as the size of this negative leading divegrence overwhelms them,

The size of today''s intraday divergence itself is monstrous.

 QQQ with no confirmation, it could have confirmed in the first hour on this chart easily.

3 min QQQ with the head fake area (yellow) and distribution in to it with a much stronger leading negative intraday.

This  10 min QQQ needs no commentary, just look at the damage today alone.

And to put the chart above in perspective, AUG S! is the August base, s2 is the mark up/rally cycle , s3 is the top/distribution and s$ is decline to a new lower low. I'll address this is a longer term post.

The same cycle at the October lows with S1 (stage 1) base/accumulation, s2, s3 top and the 10 min chart is now in context, still today's move is huge at a new cycle leading low for 3C.

Amazingly there's 15 min intraday leading negative signals as well, huge and moving to a new cycle low.

I can't begin to explain how big of a deal these divergences are on an intraday basis , much less on a macro basis/trend basis.

 IWM intraday distribution

 2 min distribution and the 2 min trend...

has remained in line with a downtrend with any attempt to bounce seeing a negative divergence

The IWM 10 min too has an intraday leading negative divegrence. This is usually VERY impressive to see on a 5 min chart, but on 10 and 15 min charts, it's nearly unheard of to this extent.