Quick Market Update

*On a quick personal note, while I doubt this has any influence on my day as there's nothing I can do, my brother just had another seizure, so unless something major changes (he seems to be fine now), the day should carry on as usual.


Most of the updates today are going to be split up in to individual assets because of the fluid nature of the market situation.

After having a good look around, if HYG was pointing to inside information ( a leak), I don't think it was Draghi as there's no divergences in front of Draghi and nothing moved except the Euro (and EUR/USD), not index futures. However, if there was inside information which I suspect there, was, it was on the Chinese (PBoC) interest rate cut as I CAN find a divergence before that in the AUD/JPY pair, Australia's $AUD is the closest reflection of what's going on in China and is the currency to look to on any Chinese data.

Otherwise the 3C charts could EASILY have confirmed such a move if there were institutional buying in to it, it appears HYG was a risk asset in which that was the case, as I've stated many times and as recently as yesterday, HY Credit and HYG in particular is a risk asset for institutional money much like a 2 or 3x leveraged ETF might be for us. In any case, no confirmation this morning thus far and  as suspected in the early morning post, the AUD/JPY is already reversed and heading lower as the move was A) too parabolic and B) with divergences in it and the $AUD.

 This is out of scale because of the move, but as you can see no higher high on even a 1 min SPY between A and B, thus no confirmation at all of the move.

This is not surprising as there was distribution heading in to the open.

The Q's show the same, no confirmation, the white divegrence is yesterday's gap down lows, the fade trade except to the upside.

 Again no confirmation which isn't surprising as distribution was already in place by the open, remember distribution isn't at the left side of the arrow, it is at the right side of it.

QQQ 2 min with little change at all considering this chart could be flying right now.

And QQQ 3 min no change.

 The same with the IWM trend, here it is in context...

IWM trend in context with every pop seeing distribution.

This is the AUD/JPY pair, this is where the leak was meaning Central Banks are talking to each other and that information is going to Goldman Sachs apparently.

As for the HYG position, it is already seeing profit taking and a divergence.

 Even when concerned yesterday with HYG, I knew it couldn't support that long of a move on a 1-day divergence.

 The Custom TICK Index vs SPY deteriorating intraday.

 And the TICK also deteriorating at minus levels off the +1750 open.

Note churning, large volume at the highs, a form of distribution which is already confirmed in the index futures.

While still a theory, this is what a monster 1-day key reversal would look like at minimum.