There are some AMAZINGLY large divergences, so much so I'm having trouble scaling the charts, this looks more and more like it could become a 1-day key reversal, but even if not, the charts are way more bearish than the fade of the open might even begin to suggest.
I am that impressed that I have to get this note out in case you are considering action in any particular trades and need a quick read on the market, the charts are following as I'm almost done compiling them, although several updates will be needed. The Nikkei 225 futures don't look like they'll disappoint either, their divegrence more than suggests the original expectation of a dead cat bounce followed by Sunday night's bearish trend reasserting itself, in fact probably the macro bear trend finally taking center stage.
If I had any extra dry powder, I would be using today's strength, the pinnacle of the warning just before the October rally when we knew by the charts a monster up move was coming and it would be useful to short in to, but (with my challenge to book mark that post warning in advance of even the start of the rally-just a day before) it would be emotionally terrifying.
I'll have as much evidence as I can get out to help you make your decisions, hopefully enough evidence for you to make an unemotional decision, which ever way you see fit. For me, as I said, if I had more dry powder which I may depending on MCP's action the rest of the day, I'd be using it here and now SHORT , for as strong as this move up has been, it had one purpose, to be convincing enough to not only dissuade the rampant bearish opinion at the time (mid-October) and numerous calls of a bear market, but to be strong enough to get retail to chase and provide demand that could be sold in to. This move was always seen as a means to an end, not the end itself. This move was always seen as a monstrously strong move, but before it even started, the next pivot move to the downside has always been expected to be significantly bigger and all indications are off the map with little precedent suggesting EXACTLY that.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment