A.M. Thoughts

This morning I can't help but think over and over again how much this market has changed and how the tools to play the new game are there, it takes a new view of the market just like when technical analysis started being used against traders.

Specifically I'm talking about the elites of the world and their criminal information sharing like last night's post and the ones before it that are linked about a Goldman Sachs trader who was fired from GS for not getting inside information from the NY F_E_D which he once worked at, but because he got caught, he wasn't fired and the news disclosed first, it was the other way around, the post from last night is here, Tin Foil Hats No More, Follow the Money as Goldman and the NY F_E_D Are Exposed

However this isn't the first time I've suspected such tin foil hat conspiracies, as a matter of fact I've long written about them, just as recently as last Friday, The Plunge Protection and Market Correction Team

After watching Nikkei 225 trade last night as it sank over 100 points, this is clearly what was expected...

As the Nikkei 225 futures/ Nikkei 225 were making new lows on the week...

Here's the entire week and last night's move to new lows as clearly expected.

Of course there's this morning's events with a PBoC (People's Bank of China - Central Bank) cutting interest rates overnight clearly in reaction to the BOJ's recent increase in QE sending the Nikkei and Index futures higher as you can see after new lows were made last night .

This followed by more incessant Draghi jawboning about how he'll raise inflation as quickly as possible, still hasn't uttered the words QE, but despite the Bundesbank (the most influential European bank with regard to ECB policy ) being against it and the ECB's charter forbidding the financing on a nation's debt, Draghi continues to jawbone and hint at it, but not say it, again sending futures higher.

Draghi is none other than Goldman Sachs Alumni. Given the nearly 50 hours of tapes showing the F_E_D discloses inside information to inappropriate parties and the Goldman trader being caught red-handed, we are to believe these are one off events, especially after the Bullard comments and market moves on them?

Then I couldn't stop thinking about the HYG move, as small as it was which may in fact tell us something about how long this ramp can sustain, but I can't stop thinking about it as HY Credit is exactly the risk asset a Goldman Sachs trades.

Did Smart Money/GS know about either the PBoC rate cut or expected Draghi jawboning which has a very short life indeed? I'm forced to look at the HYG charts that bothered me yesterday and say resoundingly, YES.

So I believe there is a new level to which we have to adjust to the money flows, as I said last night, the last way to follow this market is by those who move it and that means watching the money.

Last night Draghi's Inflation comments did NOT move SPX futures, it was the PBoC rate cut that sent Chinese sensitive currency AUD ripping higher that led futures higher.

This morning in ES...

Of course today is also an op-ex day and despite the HYG divergence that bothered me, it was no where near the size of the divergences that moved the August or October rallies, it was essentially a day.

So is this market a fade the open much like yesterday, just opposite?

 Es looks close

 NASDAQ futures look close...

Russell 2000 futures are not looking that close, but seeming to move that way.

I'm guessing there will be a knee jerk higher on the cash open and then perhaps a fade.

The 5 min charts look a bit stronger for a fade move, perhaps right after the open.

The $AUD is still in line as is the yen so I don't expect immediate movement, however the pair looks parabolic and I don't trust that.

My best guess is that a fade may come early after the open, thus I'll be watching intraday cash open charts very closely.

More to come...