Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Leveraged Market ETFs: URTY/SRTY

As I suspected, since this seems to be based on IWM, URTy is probably the best chance one would have to try to piggy back a head fake move to the upside. Since there's so much more volume in SRTY than URTY, I used it to show the signals, but I did confirm the URTY signals matched or rather confirmed.

I still would not remove myself from reason of probabilities and the discipline of patience to try to scrap a few extra bucks when such risk to do so exists and such opportunity is with the probabilities and the potential of missing that potential.

SRTY is a 3x short / inverse Russell 2000 ETF and another I personally hold.

If you were trying to play a short term piggy back IWM bounce, you'd probably use the 3x leveraged long, URTY or the 2x leveraged long UWM.

The charts below are the 3x leveraged short SRTY, again because they have significantly better volume, thus clearer signals, but they have been confirmed.
 Again there's a 3 min negative, not a very strong timeframe, but it is several days of divegrence which is along the lines of what I'd expect for the IWM to make the kind of move I have suspected it will try to make.

The 5 min chart also shows a relative negative divegrence which is a weaker form of divergence, but it too has some time under its belt, more or less since we started noticing this late last week.

Even the 10 min has a negative divegrence and for this reason I like URTY best, although I will not be trading it and rather just staying patient and staying put in SRTY (long).

The 30 min chart which isn't the strongest of them, shows the in line status at the October decline and the negative divegrence at the October highs for SRTY/lows for IWM. The size and strength of the positive divegrence since is enormous, I would not break from these probabilities to chase near term gains at a time like this.

I would consider a move below the range (yellow arrow) to be an excellent SRTY entry as that's where it would go if the IWM did in fact make the move I have been theorizing it is likely to.

UPRO, the 3x long SPY came in a close second place or a 3x leveraged piggy back long trade.

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