Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Biotech (NASDAQ) and CELG Follow Up

These are two recent trade ideas, "Let the trade come to you" and short in to strength.

What you'll notice is the rapid deterioration since last Thursday, the day we observed the market spooked over something and as always, we see it in price action/3C long before we ever find out what it is really about.

The 5 min charts haven't had time here in the last hour to make aggressive moves, but if you look at the charts up until and the charts just after, I think anyone can figure out the probabilities pretty quickly. I don't like chasing anything and just because the market is extreme and moving right now, doesn't mean you need to get caught up in the emotional heat of the moment, there are lots of jiggles and jives, although I will say overall both are still in excellent longer term position, about as good as you get for short entries.

IBB/NASDAQ Biotech Index (BIS is the 3x inverse short).
 The 5 min chart is still in line, but again this is recent changes that haven't hit it yet in the last hour.

The 1 min chart showing the market spook we saw last Thursday.

The 2 min chart falling apart.

The 3 min chart falling apart. It won't be long before the 5 min chart shares the same fate.

As for the inverse leveraged NASDAQ Biotech short, BIS (long)...

The 3 min, like IBB the 5min is in-between and hasn't had time to react yet, but just on the other-side of the 5 min...


 The BIS 10 min which is the strongest probability of all of the above timeframes and that is up, meaning NASDAQ biotechs index down.

 CELG was offered as an equity short rather than ETF, the 3 min chart falling apart.

The 5 min which actually put in a positive divegrence earlier than the broad market hasn't had a chance to react yet, but just on the other-side...

The 30 min chart tells us very clearly that the longer term , highest probability resolution is to the downside. All of the 1-5 min charts are more or less just tactical timing, this is the strategic view of where CELG should be heading...DOWN.

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