Patience Pays

OK, we don't chase emotional parabolic moves, not a good idea.

So just waiting a bit we have a parabolic move and we know what the probabilities of that holding up from here on out are, but as another one of our concepts suggests, large volume on a ROC change or candlestick reversal candle, is a good marker for a change in character, even if only short term.

 Just like yesterday's parabolic opening sell-off, it hit large volume which instead of "Smart money selling " as most technical traders thing, it's short term capitulation, a short term exhaustion event. Check multiple timefrmaes, the longer the better for a reversal. The same happened today, this is exactly the same concept as a daily/weekly Primary trend that flames out with capitulation and ends its downtrend, except this is short term.

 The TICK trend today was clear so a break of the channel is an early head's up.

While the intraday 3C can give you information about this kind of area, you don't need to get fancy.

Apply ROC (Rate of Change) to price and look for the divergence.

Now we are getting somewhere in which selling short in to weakening signals and underlying trade, but higher prices makes a lot of sense. I'll try to keep feeding ideas out, but I think you get the gist. Just make sure to check the slightly longer timeframes and make sure we are still headed in the same direction as we anticipate, although probabilities suggested that before the oversold bounce even moved a point to the upside.