I Think We May Have Just Found What Spooked the Market Last Thursday

I have been looking at confirming indicators, which I didn't expect to see much today, although a start.

I haven't had an opportunity to go back and check Leading Indicators since, but at the last check about 30 minutes ago, pretty much everything was in line except Treasury yields with the shorter end falling more relative to the SPX, but the 30 year also not supportive of today's move.

Credit and Pro sentiment remained in line, but not anything more than that, not positive.

As for the averages...the lack of support beyond the 1 min charts from yesterday was taking a toll on price.

 The 1 min charts like this SPY were still being used as intraday "steering" instruments, but not anything of any consequence. The important changes today that have picked up from Thursday's spook, are in the longer charts.

 QQQ 2 min, no support whatsoever, thus as I said yesterday, "Morning Strength which fades" as there's nothing to support the market beyond the 1 min positives from yesterday.

What is more important is we can see the trend of what's going on with those 5 min charts...

QQQ 5 min. I tried not to draw on it too much, but to the right you should be able to make out the movement and it is negative.

Then after capturing these charts which were already looking bad intraday, this...

The SPY has given up ALL gains on the day, something changed and spooked the market around 1 p.m. , just what it is is something I suggested in the recent past in asking "Why is President Obama who is committed to "no boots on the ground" in Iraq" suddenly amassing US forces on the border inside Kuwait?"

My theory... This is one of the only ways for the US to increase the price of oil, get an armed conflict going in the Middle East and Iraq has always been special as a strategic area, it sits right in the middle of all of the trouble makers.

The drop in price, which I suspect is the news the market or parts of it got last wek and we are just hearing now is,

"Bloomberg reports Senator John Cornyn said President Obama told congressional leaders during meeting today at White House he would seek authorization for military force on Islamic State. Boehner’s office, in separate statement after meeting, said Republicans would work with him to build support."

These decisions aren't made over coffee or overnight, I suspect this is what the market got wind of last week,  the one thing that would cause them to abandon a bounce cycle they set up in advance, UNCERTAINTY.

They say, "When the missiles fly, it's time to buy", this isn't so much about buying or war being bullish, it's about the market's reaction in the run-up to a potential conflict, THE MARKET HATES UNCERTAINTY,  so even the certainty of a war starting is certainty enough for the market to stabilize from the uncertainty.

In any case, I'll look again at Leading Indicators, they are probably going to look different by the end of the day.

The move that just took place was on heavy selling and it's parabolic, but in this case for good reason.

 Not much above +1000, but plenty below -1250/-1500. That's real selling.

The 5 min charts are quickly moving toward the point of no return in which they cannot recover, the IWM may already be there.

IWM 5 min, by the end of the day, I suspect it will have crossed the Rubicon.

I'll see what else we have as things are now going to start changing overtly over the uncertainty just introduced in to the market.

I'm not big in to conspiracy theories, but did you hear about the Turkish President who was just in Paris participating in the Unity rally, well as soon as he got back today he claims the French are behind the ISIS/Charlie Hebdo massacre which whether true or not, does have odd timing with this latest announcement of the US President seeking congressional authority for boots on the ground to combat ISIS.

I'll have more for you on oil as well.