AAPL Proxy & Conditions primed for F_E_D

Again, if you read the post, IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement then you have a pretty good idea what the near term forecast theory is and what might have to happen to get us there. One thing was a bad NFP number and it came in at less than half of consensus. Someone knew something as word was out last week for a print almost half of what consensus was and of course the theories that the F_E_D would use this to use dovish language to kill the strong $USD. Well a second component making that easier and more likely came in with this morning's F_E_D Labor Market Conditions Index, one of the F_E_D's main indicators, it hit 3 year lows and this on TOP of Friday's NFP which was the main miss we would have been looking for in what is looking a lot like a lot of people knew or know what's going on. If a F_E_D member comes out or one of their unofficial spokesman like Hilsenrath, you can nearly be sure this was out there last week as the coincidence of predicting all of these events that far forward or the probabilities would be worse than winning the lotto.

In any case, the intraday charts for AAPL look similar to the market...

 AAPL 1 min intraday looking a lot like the SPY in the last update intraday.

as well as the 2 min chart. This would normally be an intraday pullback, but it could also be construed as a consolidation (more sideways).

 Remember in the IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement post from Thursday (I appologize if I said Friday earlier), this breakout of the triangle was what we were looking for as there are different types of triangles in the major averages, thus AAPL as a proxy. As far as why, this seems to have more to do with $USD strength than anything and killing it which ironically forces a lot of carry trade financed trades to have to be closed, so don't judge a book or price action too quickly or by its cover.

 As with the averages, after about the 2 and some cases 3 min charts, the charts are pretty much in line, although not a lot if any strong divergences, even for a bounce or a head fake breakout.

 Like AAPL 1 min, SPY 1 min is getting more negative intraday as are the other averages.

Also like AAPL at the 3 min chart above, SPY is in line intraday.

TICK still looks like the a.m. price action is going to see a reversal, this is where I'll be paying attention and looking for any signals that Thursday's IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement forecast is on target, but we may still need that other component, someone in or close to the F_E_D coming out with dovish statements.

TICK intraday breaking this morning's uptrend channel to the downside.

In my theory/ forecast, it's important to remember this is more about the $USD than it is the market and if my theory is correct, than market prices will be VERY deceptive and useful, as the actual event of knocking down the $USD will force the unwind of somewhere around $9 trillion dollars in $USD-based carry trades and the sale of all the assets that were bought with carry proceeds, this is the kind of thing that could cause a massive collapse in line or worse than the 1929 crash, something we have long known that the current signals are already worse than what we saw in 1929. The entire reason I would call this the opportunity of more than just a lifetime, but multiple generations IF you are on the right side of the trade.