As the not so whispered, whisper number for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls made its way from the whispers of Wall Street to the ears of main street, unsurprisingly, Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls not only missed and missed big, but worse than the whisper number, but not that far off.
Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls released at 8:30 a.m. showed labor growth slowing down as the consensus of 245k was blown away with a miss less than half of expected at a mere 126k, although it didn't change the unemployment rate.
You may recall last week the leaked whisper number was somewhere in the mid 100k (150), so the 125k print was even worse than an already seemingly absurd whisper number.
I wondered out-loud several times last week whether the Whisper Number was an actual leak and what would come next? Perhaps a F_E_D member mentioning QW4 in an effort to actually kill the $USD and maybe pop what the F_E_D is increasingly seeing as a stock market bubble so when rate hikes do kick in, the reaction will be less violent and they'll catch less of the blame.
As to the leak, it seems there were some very big and very strange moves that were very correct just seconds before the NFP came out leaving many to wonder or just proclaim that the NFP HAD indeed been leaked. If that be the case, I'd look for the reason in the coming week or so. I believe that reason will be to use it to send up trial balloons with dovish F_E_D talk, talk of delaying rate hikes, even QE 4 to kill the strong dollar. As I said last week, no one will actually mean any of it, it's just the talking game.
Nothing exciting has happened over the weekend in regard to news flow. Greece as expected seems to be pivoting toward Russia as the Greek PM, Tsipras, is set to meet with Putin and the Chinese aren't out of the game either.
Despite no finances, no way to borrow money from the Troika to pay back the Troika, Greece has still confirmed that they will make their April 9th IMF payment of $460 million Euros, although it may mean government workers have little left to get their paychecks. Political dissatisfaction is quickly enveloping the new Syriza leadership so I suspect they'll pivot hard toward Russia to secure funding before the populace reaches the breaking point and snap elections are called.
As for the market, as we expected from the Whisper number and perhaps Thursday's internals, the mere 45 minutes of Futures trade on Friday after the 8:30 NFP, sent the market plummeting lower, it would only bounce in this scenario with dovish F_E_D comments, something Goldman Sachs has already taken to the streets with in calling for a hold on rate hikes after friday's NFP. Remember it is PERCEPTION that drives the market, not actual fact, just remember the April Fool's TSLA joke.
The SPX E-mini contracts after the NFP until futures closed 45 minutes later (red arrow),,,
1 min ES Friday morning falling hard and with a negative divgerence just before the NFP above.
This is a best guess if anything, but based on the 1 min chart right now, I'm guessing we see some opening volatility and an attempt to bounce a bit as all gains since Thursday have been wiped out.
Otherwise, for now we are at the same place we were last week, this week we should have better signals, don't forget to check out my proposed forecast for this week and beyond as the first prerequisite to meeting that forecast, a weak NFP has already been met. It seems the market was telegraphing nothing for a reason, nothing was happening as it waited for the NFP, but I suspect it was waiting for the NFP to do something and that's why I suspect we see more information this week and a lot more movement. By the way, this is the forecast I was mentioning using AAPL partly as a proxy for the overall market...
IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement
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