Market Update, Continued Deterioration

As of Thursday's forecast post, IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement, as you know there were many things that were open questions that needed to happen and amazingly some have like the Payrolls Friday, however as you may recall, it was based on triangles in AAPL, in the major averages, in many other assets and this was the very near term expected outcome (it's too much to recap here, please read the post)...

We've seen some of those start to break out from the triangle's apex already like AAPL, others have not like SPY, but the one constant today, despite the 15 min chart in SPY and other averages (except IWM) which supported our near term forecast as linked above, has been intraday deterioration all day. The same "selling in to price strength we have been looking at to get a nice position set-up with low risk and high probabilities rather than the recent tighter and tighter chop on a daily chart.

 SPY 15 min and several smaller and possibly larger "W" bases, but it's the recent short term (about 2-day) 15 min leading positive divegrence that was the glue in the near term forecast of a break above the triangle's apex with additional conditions like the NFP printing below ,consensus as it did and likely a F_E_D member making a VERY dovish statement.


While the 15 min chart there and in most other averages is still intact, we are seeing migration of today's negative divegrence build and build through the day. This is why I keep saying "I would not chase this long unless you are specifically set up as that kind of trader, there's too much risk considering the potential reward".

The DIA intraday and this goes from 1-10 minute charts , I just can't fit them all and get this out in a timely fashion.

 DIA 1 min, 2 min and the above 3 min all negative and as you can see, the divergence is migrating to longer timeframes showing it is gathering strength as a negative divegrence in to higher prices intraday.

Here the 5 min chart is leading negative intraday which is a serious signal on an intraday chart and also further migration or strengthening of the divergence (negative today).

Even the 10 min chart which was closer to in line near term is showing intraday deterioration.

It has been the 15 min charts where we have found strength, again see Thursday's post and forecast which included the same timeframes in Index futures confirming the same divegrence above (7-15 min).

The IWM was the sole standout. Intraday it looks a bit better, but on a larger basis, it has a weaker looking base and the 15 min chart compared to all of the other averages looks like this...

 IWM 15 min now double base/bottom and leading negative as it has been since last week.

QQQ 1 min intraday weven worse...

2 min QQQ migration...

Remember 3 min is about where we were in line, now leading negative with a stronger divergence (migration). The above is a 5 min chart leading negative.

 The 15 min positive of about 2 days (short time period) which was in line with Index futures in the same timeframe shown last week, but the way things are moving so fast today and the divegrence (negative) is strengthening, we may see deterioration here before long which would fit our scenario as well.


SPY 1 min and 2 min above leading negative even worse then earlier.

 SPY 3 min leading negative/migration of the divegrence to stronger timeframes.

5 min SPY and you saw the 15 min above.

TICK has been flat all day since this morning's early run.

I see we are just getting some downside now... I'll update you on what happens, I am loathe to trust this market on the upside near term without being EXTREMELY nimble.