Even though tomorrow is a weekly options expiration Friday, it doesn't seem to make a lot of difference. Yesterday I said I saw some charts that are interesting to me, but I didn't have enough confirmation to feel strongly that the market wouldn't either hang around this area locally (around yesterday's close) or even move a bit higher which would be in line with the Igloo/Chimney price pattern.
This morning, I am very happy not to have taken any short term positions in the averages as the charts are all over the place near term which looks to me like different averages are setting up for different max-pain op-ex pins.
The best way to see the chaois is with the charts, the best reasoning for not taking any market average based positions yesterday seems to be the very percentage moves in the averages themselves today as they roughly linger in yesterday's area.
The IWM 1 min intraday looks like a bit of downside for the IWM and it has already started that moves of this writing.
However, this is what I was talking about yesterday, multiple timeframe confirmation with a 3 min chart that seems content just to hang around this area for the day, that seems to make some sense with an op-ex pin.
The IWM 15 min chart shows the serious damage that has been done and continues to be done so I'm not too concerned about the market, specifically that it will move lower as expected, but timing right now is important, especially for leveraged positions.
The QQQ 1 min has a little less of a negative look to it than the IWM, but has also come down a bit as of this writing.
But again at the 3 min chart, I don't have a strong conviction that downside moves right now will stick, they look more like steering divergences perhaps to pick out the area of the max-pain op-ex pin tomorrow.
The 5 min chart with the Igloo and Chimney formation has a nice negative divergence through the rounding/igloo portion and a weaker 3C divergence in to the head fake/Chimney area which is what we want to see so it looks like the move to the downside is setting up, but until the intraday charts are confirming each other, this looks like the market is happy to hang in this area for the day and likely tomorrow, not exactly where I want to enter a position.
The SPY 1 min on the other hand has a positive intraday 1 min chart and although it has lost some ground as of this writing, I suspect that 1 min chart is to keep it in the general area.
I'm not married to the analysis/theory, but for now that seems to be the most the charts are telling us on a very near term basis, if that changes, you'll be the first to know.
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