TLT Update-30 Year Treasuries

This is an update specific to the TLT Put position from Tuesday, TRADE IDEA: SPECULATIVE TLT PUTS.

I say this because there is a larger, counter trend rally trade I'm expecting in TLT/Treasuries, this would be a far larger trade and I believe it is close, but it would be a long trade. In fact I suspect that the TLT Put position (shorter term) that I'm currently addressing, may be the last downside move before a counter trend rally in TLT/Treasuries (30 year in particular).

However one bridge at a time. For now, yesterday got real interesting for TLT by way of 30 year treasuries and their charts. I'll show you both TLT's and 30 year Treasury futures.

First the counter trend rally chart in TLT still looks strong as ever, just not quite there...

 This is a long term 60 min chart of TLT. There's a significant negative divergence that has been part of the lower high and two lower lows since treasuries started to falter from last year's enormous run. However the current leading positive divergence to the far right suggests a rally/short squeeze which just so happens to coincide with a totally separate concept of a shakeout of technical traders along the lines of our Channel Buster concept, so this just acts as further confirmation.

However near term which is what the TLT put position is about...

 The intraday 1 min chart has deterioration, specifically from the close yesterday onward, but this is far from what I find interesting.

The 3 min chart's leading negative divergence is stronger and far more interesting, but still not what I'm most interested in.

This 5 min TLT leading negative is a bit more interesting.

However its ZB/30 year Treasury futures (similar to TLT- 20+ year Treasuries).

 Again the intraday 1 min chart is deteriorating like TLT's.

However the 3 min chart is far more interesting as a stronger timeframe and deeper negative divergence.

 As is the 7 min chart.

Even more so, the divergence runs all the way out to 15 min ZB charts. This looks extremely good for TLT.

Even more interesting would be the next trade set up in TLT long which only need be confirmed as seeing accumulation on a move to the downside which is what I'm still expecting near term based on the charts above. The TLT long counter trend rally is the one I don't want to miss and already have a partial position in place (2x long TLT) using a convoluted scheme of shorting TBT. As we just saw with the $USD, counter trend rallies are some of the strongest you'll see, although they are not reversals that hold.